Authoritarianism in Turkey and the United States + Islamic State Responds to Russia

Turkish president Recep Erdoğan's strategy of tension appears to have paid off. His Justice and Development Party (AKP), confounding pollsters who predicted another dead-heat election, has won a majority in parliament. It took the shredding of a ceasefire with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and sowing divisions in Turkish society that will not be bridged anytime soon, but it guarantees that Erdoğan will remain in power for the foreseeable future and that he will take a crack at revision of the constitution to formalize an executive presidency. Right now the presidency is mostly a ceremonial post, which necessitates that Erdoğan rule through cut-outs like prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

Tim Arango and Ceylan Yeginsu report in "Erdogan’s Party in Turkey Regains Parliamentary Majority":

With 99 percent of the votes counted, according to the state broadcaster TRT, the Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., captured 49.3 percent of the popular vote, giving it a solid majority of 316 seats in Parliament.

The victory for the A.K.P. came at great cost to the cohesion of Turkish society. Critics say Mr. Erdogan’s divisive rhetoric, by denigrating opponents as terrorists or traitors, helped polarize the country. And a government crackdown on dissent in the lead-up to the vote, with mobs attacking newspaper offices and a recent raid on a media conglomerate opposed to the government, raised concerns abroad about Turkey’s commitment to democracy.

Erdoğan's raids on and closure of opposition media has an approximate parallel in the United States. The Republican National Committee (RNC), following the CNBC-hosted GOP debate last Wednesday, pulled a debate scheduled for February that was to be televised by NBC News and Telemundo. The feeling among the Republican presidential candidates, as well as the RNC, is that questions from the moderators have been hostile. The candidates are seeking to have more control over the process. To that end, they convened in Alexandria, VA in an attempt to articulate a negotiating position towards the networks.

As Ashley Parker notes in "Republican Campaigns Meet in an Effort to Alter Debates":

They emerged with a modest list of demands, including opening and closing statements of at least 30 seconds; “parity and integrity” on questions, meaning that all candidates would receive similarly substantive questions; no so-called lightning rounds; and approval of any graphics that are aired during the debate.

The campaign representatives also moved to take the Republican National Committee out of the debate negotiating process, calling for the campaigns to negotiate directly with the TV networks over format, and to receive information about the rules and criteria at least 30 days before each debate.

Ben Ginsberg, a top Republican lawyer and debate negotiator who was invited to serve as a facilitator at the meeting, is drafting a letter — without the R.N.C.’s input — that the campaigns plan to send to the networks within 48 hours. Mr. Ginsberg called the committee immediately after the meeting to convey the group’s next steps.

It is hard to generate any sense of outrage on behalf of the corporate networks or the sidelined RNC. The media monopoly and the national duopoly central committees are working hard to make sure that the candidates who have raised the most corporate cheddar are waved through to the general election. This means Hillary, and now, with the approval of billionaire investor Paul Singer, Marco Rubio.

Nonetheless, the orchestrated Republican attacks on the liberal bias of the corporate mainstream media reek of authoritarianism.

Sadly, as Erdoğan proved again yesterday, authoritarianism works. It is just in the case of the CNBC debate brouhaha authoritarianism is being used against the font of authority, the mainstream corporate media. So who knows how this is all going to play out in the GOP primary.

I think it is pretty safe to say that the corporate mainstream has successfully circled the wagons around Hillary. With the phony challenge of a Biden bid successfully surmounted, her first debate performance hailed as a commanding victory and the Benghazi committee hearing rapidly receding in her rear-view mirror, Hillary is all set to roll up Sanders come Super Tuesday.

A triumphant Erdoğan means that Europe will come a-calling again in search of a solution to the refugee crisis, a crisis which promises to grow more acute. Turkey's election in June, the one that failed to deliver Erdoğan his majority, was purported to be a referendum of Turkish disapproval of the war in Syria. Now that Erdoğan is in possession of his majority I would imagine that Turkish support for jihadist networks in Syria and attacks on Kurds will be amplified.

The downing of a Russian charter jet in Egypt is clearly the work of jihadists. Islamic State in the Sinai is claiming responsibility. Yet the West is putting up a smokescreen, saying that it couldn't be a jihadist group because such groups don't possess surface-to-air missiles. Poppycock. No such hedging was indulged when it came to blaming Novorossiyan forces for the downing of MH17. What we have here is a reprisal for Russia's forceful entry into the war in Syria.

Russia's reply should be interesting. For what it is worth, if I were a ruling member of the House of Saud, I would be nervous.

Trump Cannot be Beat: Epiphany or Delusion?

There is intriguing news this morning from John Kerry's faithful scribe Michael Gordon, "U.S. and Russia to Back U.N. Resolution to Identify Who Used Chemical Weapons in Syria," but tonight is the much-anticipated Republican presidential debate to be broadcast on FOX:

Fox News has announced the line-up for the prime-time Republican presidential debate this Thursday, and here's who qualified:

Real estate magnate Donald Trump; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush; Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; Texas Sen. Ted Cruz; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio; Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

The roster of 10 candidates was determined based on an average of the five most recent national polls. Trump as expected made the cut, securing the top slot. Right behind him were Bush and Walker, who each have posted strong numbers in recent surveys.

The drama, rather, was at the edge of the top 10. Christie and Kasich, who were hovering by that edge in recent polling, were able to qualify.

It is surprising how much interest this debate has generated since none of the candidates, once ensconced in the Oval Office, can be counted on to lift a finger to aid the vast majority of working men and women who put him there.

Much of the interest is due to Donald Trump who, as the saying goes, is kicking ass and taking names. He has shot to the top of the polls in the GOP race despite incendiary comments (Mexican rapists) and damning press reports (The Donald allegedly raped his then-wife Ivana, yanking out a tuft of her hair; he labeled a female attorney disgusting for brandishing a breast pump in court).

Trump's lead is ample, and I don't see it diminishing anytime soon. Among the voters of the "indispensable nation" on both the left and the right there is an insatiable appetite for destruction of the duopoly. This is the origin of Trumpism. The same anti-mainstream appetite is present in Europe. It manifested itself in the stunning victory of the Scottish National Party in May; and prior to that, in Syriza's victory in Greece at the beginning of the year.

The left in the United States has been decimated and cleansed every time it has reared its head in the post-WWII era. So if there is to be a prairie fire type rebellion at the polls it is going to have to come from a right-wing demagogue like Trump. The Sandernistas are a boutique product meant to keep progressives shopping at the Democrat big box outlet.

A union member walked into the local yesterday. I was working the front desk because the receptionist is on vacation. I know this guy. He is proud gun owner who works construction and wears a "Savage Nation" baseball cap. We share a passion for the Seahawks. So whenever he comes into the hall we compare notes.

He told me to make sure to tune into to the debates tonight.

Dropping his voice into a whisper because we were in a union hall where public support for a Republican candidate is frowned upon, he said Trump is the only candidate who is going to bring jobs back to the United States. Politicians like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush will tell you one thing and do the opposite once elected. The same goes for Hillary. But not Donald. Trump is going to shake things up.

I didn't disagree with him. I could have. Trump is a rich man who makes his money principally by selling high-end real estate to other rich people. He is not going to upend the apple cart of the 1% should he end up running the country. But Trump is exposing the utter barrenness of two-party politics in the United States. And at this point, I don't see how he can be tethered.

The meaningful takeaway from the interaction with my "Savage Nation" friend is that the rank'n'file voter understands that mainstream national politicians no longer represent the average citizen; they lie to get elected and then represent the ruling class. Trump is the new Jeremiah, the reality TV Isaiah.

Suddenly, a Trump vs. Hillary general election match-up materialized before my eyes. And at that moment it seemed to me that Trump cannot be beat.