I first took note of the promise of remote work when I was a lower-division undergraduate. This was probably 1984 or 1985. I saw a television news story that said in the next few years companies would be allowing, thanks to modems and personal computers, more employees to work from home. I was pleased because this meant by the time I exited the university and entered the workforce I'd likely have more freedom than those who had come before.
Needless to say the remote work revolution never arrived. Every so often another story would appear heralding a workplace paradigm shift thanks to the breathtaking speed of our digital transformation, but eventually even those petered out.
To be sure there was an elite class of workers who always enjoyed on-the-job flexibility, as well as a precariat of freelancers for whom remote work was not necessarily an enhancement, but it took the pandemic crisis of 2020 to deliver the fruits of stay-at-home work for the great mass of office workers.
This morning Yves Smith, "New York City Faces Another 'Drop Dead': How Many Other Cities Will Wind Up in Distress?," takes a look at the what the long-delayed but now here-to-stay remote work revolution means for the great urban centers of the United Stated, and the news is not good for real estate.
Smith mentions that large employers are trying to bring their workers back onsite and they're facing a rebellion. I can testify when that moment arrives for my office the same thing will happen.
So cities are facing an enormous drop off in tax revenue. That's really the issue that's impeding another bailout plan passing congress. The Republicans won't backstop states, counties and cities; they want a repeat of the post-2008 layoffs of government workers that helped to created a slow-motion recovery and stoked political division that they were able to take advantage of.
I for one am enjoying the empty streets. But I realize there is going to be huge price to pay.
No comments:
Post a Comment