Craig Murray argues convincingly this morning in "The Largest Vote Swings in British General Election History Censored Out By the BBC and Mainstream Media" that the media have over-reported Labour voters defecting to the Conservative Party while under-reporting a much larger swing of Tory voters to the Liberal Democratic Party.
Murray thinks the Tories will fail to achieve a majority:
Remember this. The Tory vote has not increased. It is the same level as 2017. But the media has vastly over-represented, in vox pops and in debate and panel audiences, those switching from Labour to Tory.
More importantly, the YouGov constituency poll of over 100,000 interviews was conducted from 3 to 10 December. The momentum was already against the Tories, and the large majority of its responses were from before the Boris Johnson phone snatching interview and NHS child on the floor scandal, which I suspect has put off more prospective Tory voters. So it was a snapshot of voting intent mostly several days ago, not today, let alone tomorrow when we vote. Remember also the evidence of 2017 is that after a time the highly controlled, slogan-led campaign wears on voters. People who were quite impressed the first time they saw Boris Johnson say “Get Brexit Done” are less impressed when they have seen him say that and nothing else for four weeks. They are inclined to conclude he is an empty slogan parrot, as they did with Theresa May and “strong and stable.”
The final reason to believe that the Tory lead will narrow from the YouGov constituency model poll is that they themselves reported this. Their poll was taken over seven days; at that start of that period it was showing an 11 point lead to the Tories, by the last day it was showing an eight point lead. I see every reason to expect that momentum to continue. Finally, remember that YouGove are an extremely Tory friendly pollster.
Most importantly it shows the number of ultra-marginal constituencies to be substantially more than the predicted Tory overall majority, and all of them susceptible to tactical voting. Scotland and Wales are particularly important. Ultra marginals in Scotland and Wales alone can wipe out the projected majority if the go the right way. There are no Tory/Labour marginals in Scotland, only Tory/SNP marginals and I strongly urge everybody in Scotland who wants to stop Johnson to vote SNP.
I will post some thoughts on key seats in England and Wales in which to vote tactically later. But I already feel confident Johnson will not get his majority.Let's imagine a situation where, thanks to an enormous government/media monopoly PSYOP, the appalling Johnson manages to equal May's 2017 performance. Will the DUP of Northern Ireland provide a bailout to the Tories like it did last time? Though party leader Arlene Foster has renounced Johnson, bribery of the DUP cannot be ruled out.
But there's evidence that the DUP is in trouble in Belfast. They might not have enough MPs after tomorrow to provide another bailout to the Tories.
So even assuming the polls are accurate, it is not looking good for Boris Johnson.
Then factor in what are almost certain to be Tory losses in Scotland and Wales, and a picture begins to form of a non-Tory government.
The big question though is how well are the Liberal Democrats going to perform. The Liberal Democratic Party is pro-austerity, pro-war and anti-Corbyn. If the party is as potent a force in this election as Murray has outlined then the formation of a coalition government by Labour is going to be difficult.
On the other hand, maybe a huge wave of young voters, like in Hong Kong recently, will appear tomorrow and put Labour over the top.
In any event, I think Murray is right. I think the Tories won't get their majority. And that is a huge victory for working people against government propaganda and another serious blow to the Washington Consensus.
No comments:
Post a Comment