Democrats Take the House

With two-and-a-half months until the general election in November I think it is safe to predict that the Democratic Party will regain control of the House of Representatives.

A sober assessment is "Why Even a Blue Wave Could Have Limited Gains" by David Wasserman, an editor at The Cook Political Report:

It's hard to believe, but true: If every state’s and district’s election results on Nov. 6 were a uniform eight-point swing in the Democrats’ direction from the 2016 presidential result, Democrats would gain 44 House seats — almost twice the 23 they need to control the chamber. But with that same eight-point swing, the party would lose four Senate seats, leaving them six seats short of a majority.

Nate Silver is presently predicting that the Dems will pick up 34 seats.

The problem is that a Democratic victory in November doesn't change much. The Senate will stay in control of the GOP, and Trump, who triangulates using his own administration as a foil, will rape whomever the Democrats make Speaker, particularly if it is Nancy Pelosi.

Ask yourself, Does the Democratic House act as a brake on Trump's coming war on Iran? (U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil commence in November.) It's doubtful.

But for all the conflicted, supine weakness of the Democratic Party, Trump's game is beginning to emerge to the point where he's becoming predictable. He's basically a right wing Barack Obama. Trump can keep the faithful clocking in to work though he delivers a meager paycheck. Obama had safely won a second term before his base started to look elsewhere for gainful employment. Hopefully the 40% of voters who have stuck with Trump so far will come to their senses sooner than Obama Democrats.