Trump's approval ratings are holding steady in the low 40s, and the distance between Republicans and Democrats on the generic ballot appears to be narrowing. So why do I think Trump is cooked?
- Trump has destroyed the foundation of U.S. global hegemony -- hence, "American exceptionalism" -- by pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal and alienating Europe. There is some evidence that Europe is working to ends its vassalage.
- Trump has shown himself to be a run-of-the-mill neocon warmonger. A big reason he won the GOP primary was that he positioned himself as a critic of U.S. forever wars.
- Trump is going to lose on trade. He'll either capitulate to the Chinese at the bargaining table or he'll launch a gigantic trade war.
When Trump feels vulnerable, he "punches a Latino." From Julie Hirschfeld Davis' "Trump Calls Some Unauthorized Immigrants ‘Animals’ in Rant":
“We have people coming into the country, or trying to come in — we’re stopping a lot of them,” Mr. Trump said in the Cabinet Room during an hourlong meeting that reporters were allowed to document. “You wouldn’t believe how bad these people are. These aren’t people, these are animals, and we’re taking them out of the country at a level and at a rate that’s never happened before.”
[snip]
The president’s language and his focus on California drew a sharp rebuke from Jerry Brown, the state’s Democratic governor.
“Trump is lying on immigration, lying about crime and lying about the laws of California,” Mr. Brown said in a statement. “Flying in a dozen Republican politicians to flatter him and praise his reckless policies changes nothing. We, the citizens of the fifth-largest economy in the world, are not impressed.”
During the session, Mr. Trump suggested that the mayor of Oakland, Calif., should be charged with obstruction of justice for warning her constituents in February of an impending large-scale immigration raid and arrests.
“You talk about obstruction of justice,” said the president, who is himself the subject of a special counsel’s investigation into whether he sought to thwart a federal examination of Russia’s meddling in the 2016 elections. “I would recommend that you look into obstruction of justice for the mayor of Oakland.”
Turning to Jeff Sessions, his attorney general, who sat at the other end of the large wooden conference table, Mr. Trump said: “Perhaps the Department of Justice can look into that.”Picking a fight with California is foolish heading into that state's June 5 primary. California and a remapped Pennsylvania are probably why Paul Ryan took a powder.
Trump is finished. The next couple of months we shall see the unwinding.
This morning the French energy company that had the rights to the Iranian Pars gas field, the biggest gas field in the world, is apparently going to back out of the deal because of US sanctions. China is moving in to take its place. Despite Trump's belligerence, once he starts costing his betters money he's gone.
ReplyDeleteThe mainstream reporting on Europe's response to Trump's pull out from the JCPOA is interesting. First, there is a vague reference to technical measures EU nations are looking into in order to protect companies doing business in Iran. Then there is a clear statement of "It won't work because the U.S. is too powerful," followed by a list of companies, such as Total and A.P. Moller-Maersk, planning to abandon their Iranian business ventures.
ReplyDeleteTrump might have some game left yet.