Trump can't win a trade war with China, and it looks like his principal MAGA demand to scrap NAFTA is being walked back. Trump's NAFTA position was always a bully's boast, the same one with which he is taunting the Chinese. He can't deliver because ag states are red states, and it's the ag states that are going to suffer the most if NAFTA is repealed or a trade war widens with China.
As Steven Lee Myers clarifies in "Why China Is Confident It Can Beat Trump in a Trade War":
“The American agricultural sector is quite influential in the Congress,” said Wang Yong, a professor of economics at Peking University, explaining why China has targeted farm products such as soybeans with possible retaliatory tariffs. “China wants the American domestic political system to do the work.”
The president and his administration have sent drastically different messages this week.
Hours after China’s announcement on Wednesday, administration officials sought to calm fears that a trade war was imminent, suggesting that they might not pull the trigger on a plan to impose tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods.
But late Thursday, Mr. Trump said he would consider levying an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods in response to its “unfair retaliation.” In a statement, he said, “Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers.”
Mr. Zhu, China’s vice minister of finance, this week had thanked American soybean farmers and the association that represents them for declaring their opposition to the Trump administration’s plan.
In addition to soybeans, China threatened to retaliate with tariffs on American cars, chemicals and other products. The 106 goods, many produced in parts of the country that have supported Mr. Trump, were selected to deliver a warning that American workers and consumers would suffer in a protracted standoff.
“If anyone wants to fight, we will be there with him,” Mr. Zhu said, more or less outlining the terms for an American surrender: the removal of unilateral tariffs and a resolution of any grievances through the World Trade Organization. “If he wants to negotiate, the door is open.”The news is not good for Trump. He has turned out to be much more the warmonger than he appeared on the hustings. MAGA voters were not fans of the Clinton-Obama entanglements in the Middle East. Trump campaigned against the Iraq War and he criticized the Saudis. In office, his first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia. The U.S. under Trump has proclaimed a long-term commitment to occupy Syria. Last week Trump said the occupation would end shortly, only to have the White House deny it this week.
Everything else to one side, if Trump proves to MAGA voters that he can deliver his tough talk on trade I think he has a chance at a second term. But the problem for Trump is that he can't. The best he can hope for is smoke and mirrors.
I know I've waffled on this because the Democrats are so horrible. But unless Trump can somehow spin his soon-to-be losses on trade, a blue wave could very well appear in November.
In my article last year I predicted that the Deep State is negotiating with Trump. Trump is beginning to learn that he doesn't control the military or where it goes and what it does.
ReplyDeleteHe indeed is a bully. A narcissist and somewhat disconnected from reality too.
The rightwing commenters on the net are ready to go to war with China. But people in this country have been trained to blame the other side. I'm not sure how long Trump's base can blame blame the Dems or Hillary for his huge misstep. I suspect the farming associations and other industries getting hurt will make their falling profits known. The question is how Trump, whose purpose in lie is to glorify himself, will be pulled from the cliff or go over it.
We've had some doozies in the White House, but this guy pretty much tops them all.
I was surprised by the Conor Lamb win in PA's 18th CD. It shows that MAGA is pretty much a hoax. If a blue dog can flip a 20-point pro-Trump margin, then November should be rough for the GOP.
ReplyDeleteParticularly since it looks like there is going to be no back-down from China. The Chinese don't import nearly as much from the U.S. as the U.S. does from China. So red state agriculture is going to bear the brunt of the trade war.