Referendums on Independence for Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan

UPDATE: Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's move to arrest Catalan officials is being panned. See Raphael Minder's "Catalonia Showdown Tests Spanish Leader’s Instinct for Survival." According to polls the independence referendum was headed for defeat. But those polls were conducted before the arrests. I suppose Rajoy wanted to look tough for his conservative base; plus, post-Brexit and post-Trump, who can bank on opinion polling anymore?

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The independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan is Monday. The Catalan independence referendum is the following Sunday, October 1. Spanish police are raiding offices of the Catalan regional government, arresting its officials, while in Erbil, high-priced American advisers are holding court. Quite a contrast, but also a clear signal of the likely results.

In "As Catalonia Referendum Nears, Tensions Rise in Spain," Raphael Minder reports from Madrid that

With the backing of the constitutional court, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has been stepping up efforts to prevent the referendum, scheduled for Oct. 1.

The police raided the offices of the Catalan regional government early Wednesday and arrested at least 14 people, including Josep Maria Jové, secretary general of economic affairs. The arrests were not expected, but hundreds of mayors and other officials in Catalonia had been warned that they would be indicted if they helped organize a referendum in violation of Spanish law.

Hundreds of supporters of Catalan independence immediately took to the streets of Barcelona to protest the arrests. Jordi Sanchez, the leader of one of the region’s biggest separatist associations, used Twitter to urge Catalansto “resist peacefully,” but also to “come out and defend our institutions.”

Speaking before the national Parliament, Mr. Rajoy defended the detentions and accused separatist politicians of promoting civil disobedience and escalating the conflict, using methods he described as “profoundly antidemocratic.” [!]

[snip] 

Madrid seized control of Catalonia’s finances this week, seeking to ensure that separatist politicians could not spend further public funds on the referendum. Under the guidance of public prosecutors and Spanish judges, the police conducted raids across Catalonia to confiscate ballots and campaign materials from printing shops and delivery companies. Spain’s judiciary has also taken measures to stop advertisements related to the referendum in the news media.

Still, the Catalan government says it can hold the vote, and recently announced that it had stored about 6,000 ballot boxes in a secret location.

“The referendum will be held and is already organized,” Mr. Romeva said. “Clearly the conditions in which it will be celebrated are not those that we wished for.”

As the referendum date nears, Mr. Rajoy, who leads a minority government, finds himself under increasing pressure in Madrid to explain how the conflict over possible Catalan secession spun out of control.

Recent opinion polls have shown support for Catalan independence waning, but they also show that most people in the region want the right to vote on Catalonia’s future.

Catalonia is led by a fragile coalition, and its government has struggled to maintain unity at times as it pursues a unilateral path toward independence. On Wednesday, Miquel Iceta, the leader of the Socialist Party of Catalonia, called on the regional government to abandon plans for the October referendum and stop fueling a secessionist conflict, “which will lead us all toward disaster.”