The New York Times has an excellent page devoted to the outcome of yesterday's Super Tuesday primary, a Dixie-heavy set of eleven statewide elections. In the Republican contest, Trump won seven; Cruz did better than anticipated by winning three; and Little Marco cleared the tiny tot hurdle, set for him by an adoring establishment, by winning a single state, Minnesota. On the Democratic side, Hillary ran the table in the South -- except for Oklahoma -- while Sanders picked up wins in Vermont, Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma. A pretty feather for Clinton's cap is that she held on by 20,000 votes to win Democratic terra firma -- the land of Jack, Bobby and Tip -- Massachusetts. If Bernie had won in Massachusetts it would have been a powerful statement of the potency of his insurgent candidacy. As it turned out, basically a draw, with Hillary winning 45 pledged delegates to Bernie's 43, it illustrates the deep chasm in the Democratic Party, one me thinks cannot be bridged by November.
The only swing state to hold a primary election on Super Tuesday was Virginia. The results foretell a perplexing general election. The Republicans tallied 1,027,897 votes to the Democrats 784,392. Hillary ran strong with over half-a-million votes. Pundits will say that if you add Bernie's totals to Clinton's, toss in a hefty chunk of Rubio's and Kasich's votes, you come away with a walk-off Democratic home run in the Old Dominion. But I don't think you can slice and dice the vote predictably.
If Hillary has an advantage in any swing state it is Virginia with its multitude of government workers in the state's eastern suburbs. The question becomes how many Bernie backers vote Trump or third party. If Clinton wins a majority of Sanders' vote, I think she can carry Virginia because she will have many Rubio voters as well, and they out-polled Bernie in Virginia by 50,000 votes.
No comments:
Post a Comment