tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22766380544869600952024-03-12T21:17:05.136-07:00Burdens of a BachelorAn attempt of the analytic a posteriori.Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.comBlogger2495125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-66343663356101125162022-02-26T09:22:00.001-08:002022-02-26T09:23:44.891-08:00Who is to Blame? <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nbj1AR_aAcE" width="320" youtube-src-id="Nbj1AR_aAcE"></iframe></div><p></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-76598838888222497872021-08-07T12:00:00.006-07:002021-08-07T18:05:23.765-07:00Collapse of the Gulf Stream<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The week before last a tree-removal crew arrived across the street and chopped down two large evergreen trees that stood in the backyard of the old apartment building that my studio windows look out upon.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The evergreens were 60-70 feet in height and provided delicious green eye candy as I lay in bed. Crows frequently perched at the tippity top like Christmas tree angels and swayed with the breeze. During my football season TV ultramarathons I would often find myself gazing for long stretches at the waving evergreens next door. It's very soothing.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I can already feel the impact of their absence. The glare is worse, and, if had to guess, I'd say it's at least a couple degrees warmer in my apartment now that they are gone. Thankfully they didn't remove all the evergreens. There's still two left, not quite as big, about 15 yards to the west, also in the backyard of the old apartment building. And, thankfully, they didn't remove the trees prior to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Western_North_America_heat_wave#:~:text=An%20extreme%20heat%20wave%20affected,without%20human%20induced%20global%20warming.">recent heat dome</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I mention this as preface to the <a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/08/unimaginably-catastrophic-researchers-fear-gulf-stream-system-could-collapse.html">study recently published</a> warning that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system which includes the <a href="https://scijinks.gov/gulf-stream/">Gulf Stream</a>, is "approaching . . . a critical threshold beyond which the circulation system could collapse."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">What that collapse would look like no one knows for sure, but it would likely include "increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level in the eastern U.S. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It seems to me that we are headed for a series of "End Times" level events owing to our rapidly heating climate. Having finished reading Dahr Jamail's <i><a href="https://thenewpress.com/books/end-of-ice">The End of Ice</a></i>, I know that the Artic permafrost is melting faster than scientists anticipated. This pretty much "bakes in" hotter temperatures in the immediate future. Methane has anywhere from 30- to 90-times the heat-trapping power of carbon dioxide. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Russian tundra is on fire. The forests of Pacific Northwest are too. Catastrophic fires year after year. This is the way it is going to be for the rest of my life.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-65433871035513805472021-07-31T13:05:00.007-07:002021-07-31T21:07:58.886-07:00Biden Less Obama More George W. Bush<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Why Trump never pushed harder to deliver an infrastructure bill while he was in office baffled me. The only conclusion I could draw is that he didn't think it was important to his reelection.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I thought it was. Whether it would have a made a difference in the middle of a global pandemic the likes of which haven't been seen since the end of World War One is easy to assert but difficult to prove.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">What's apparent is that Biden believes he has to deliver something on infrastructure, even if it is the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/28/upshot/infrastructure-breakdown.html?searchResultPosition=1" target="_blank">shrunken bipartisan deal</a> -- widely announced but as of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-legislation-bills-john-cornyn-1b3f22fa5c7e0440526272a99902bd06" target="_blank">Saturday afternoon</a> the text has yet to be completed. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Democratic Party needs some proof of life heading into a midterm election year, particularly now that Delta is on the ascent and evidence is emerging that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/cdc-vaccinated-delta.html" target="_blank">breakthrough infections</a> are much more common than previously supposed.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The one feather in Biden's cap had been the rollout of vaccines produced by Trump's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed">Operation Warp Speed</a>. If it turns out that these vaccines don't offer a complete solution to the problem -- as I said, it is being acknowledged now that fully vaccinated people can spread the virus and end up in the hospital -- things are going to take a turn for the ugly. As <a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/financial-times-things-could-fall-apart-for-biden.html" target="_blank">Yves Smith</a> noted last week quoting a story by NPR on the recent COVID-19 surge in the U.S. -- "[Infections] will steadily accelerate through the summer and fall, peaking in mid-October, with daily deaths more than triple what they are now."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's not a good look for Biden. And, as Smith points out, the pandemic isn't the only bad look for Biden. Every policy area appears to be turning to shit right before our eyes. Whether it's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/politics/biden-iran-nuclear-deal.html" target="_blank">Iran</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/world/asia/afghanistan-migration-taliban.html">Afghanistan</a>, <a href="https://thegrayzone.com/2021/07/25/cubas-cultural-counter-revolution-us-govt-rappers-artists-catalyst/" target="_blank">Cuba</a>, the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-d6bfbe4aff82bbcf7586a3936ea98731">lapsing eviction moratorium</a>, the false promises to alleviate <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R58Si78N9i4&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">student debt</a>, Biden is looking less like the conservative, feckless Obama 3.0 and more like bumbling, incompetent George W. Bush 3.0.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So, yes, absolutely. Some sort of meaningful infrastructure bill must be passed. I'm even willing to accept the bipartisan deal as it is being currently reported if only to get the increased public transit, Amtrak and lead abatement funds into the pipeline, knowing full well that big-ticket $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation will likely never leave the launch pad.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">If we use the fate of Biden's original infrastructure proposal as a gauge for budget reconciliation, the Democrats will end up somewhere around $1 trillion; at which point, I imagine, the party will be on the precipice of a free fall.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-87006210536712821432021-06-20T06:00:00.002-07:002021-06-20T06:00:43.433-07:00Future Not Bright for U.S. Hegemony<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/m6pJd6O_NT0" width="320" youtube-src-id="m6pJd6O_NT0"></iframe></div><br />Last night, a sunny almost-last-day-of-spring evening, I got around to watching NBC's full, pre-summit interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin.<p></p><p>It's a stunning display not just of Putin's skills as an interlocutor with a hostile questioner but more importantly of the bankruptcy of Western intelligence service talking points as presented by a corporate mainstream media mouthpiece.</p><p>NBC's English clown repeatedly interrupted and jabbed his pen at Putin, and Putin kept his cool at all times except for <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/transcript-nbc-news-exclusive-interview-russia-s-vladimir-putin-n1270649" target="_blank">once</a> when the topic of NATO came up:</p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>KEIR SIMMONS: But many of those exercises are a resp— are a response to your actions— Mr. President. Do you worry that your opposition to NATO has actually strengthened it? For six years, NATO has spent more on defense.</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>VLADIMIR PUTIN: Some— some defense. Some defense. During the USSR era, Gorbachev, who is still— thank God, with us— got a promise— a verbal promise— that— there would be no NATO expansion to the east. Where is that—</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>KEIR SIMMONS: Where is that—</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>VLADIMIR PUTIN: —promise? Two ways of expansion.</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>KEIR SIMMONS: Where is that written down? Where is that promise written down?</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">VLADIMIR PUTIN: Right, right, right. Right, right. Well done. Well done. Correct. You’ve got a point. Nyah nyah nyah, got you good. Well, congratulations. Of course, everything should be sealed and written on paper. But what was the point of expanding NATO to the east and bringing this infrastructure to our borders, and all of this before saying that we are the ones who have been acting aggressively?</span></blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">Why? On what basis? Did Russia after the USSR collapsed present any threat to the U.S. or European countries? We voluntarily withdrew our troops from Eastern Europe. Leaving them just on empty land. Our— people there— military personnel for decades lived there in what was not normal conditions, including their children.</span></blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: large;">We went to tremendous expenses. And what did we get in response? We got in response infrastructure next to our borders. And now, you are saying that we are threatening to somebody. We're conducting war games on a regular basis, including sometimes surprise military exercises. Why should it worry the NATO partners? I just don't understand that.</span></blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>KEIR SIMMONS: Will you commit now not to send any further Russian troops into Ukrainian sovereign territory?</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>VLADIMIR PUTIN: Look, we— did we— did we say that we were planning to send our armed formations anywhere? We were conducting war games on— in our territory. How can this not be clear? I'm saying it again because I want your audience to hear it, your— listeners to hear it— both on the screens of their televisions and on the internet.</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>We conducted military exercises in our territory. Imagine if we sent our troops into direct proximity to your borders. What would have been your response? We didn't do that. We did it in our territory. You conducted war games in Alaska. God bless you.</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>But you had crossed an ocean, brought thousands of personnel— thousands of units of military equipment close to our borders, and yet you believe that we are acting aggressively and somehow you're not acting aggressively. Just look at that. Pot— pot calling the kettle black.</blockquote><p></p><p class="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2a2a2a; font-family: PublicoText, Georgia, TimesNewRoman, "Times New Roman", Times, Baskerville, serif; font-size: 18px; margin: 1.5rem 0px;"></p><blockquote>KEIR SIMMONS: Moving on—</blockquote><p></p><p>If this is the best that the national security state corporate mainstream media has to offer, and I believe it is, the future is not bright for U.S. hegemony.</p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-75690326740126299392021-04-04T05:45:00.003-07:002021-04-04T05:59:52.181-07:00Tariq Ali on the Saudi War on Yemen<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I've been away from this page for some time. The first quarter of the year was spent moving the office that I manage from its home of more than a half century. A Herculean effort was required and a Herculean effort was delivered despite being physically diminished from the long-haul effects of a first-wave coronavirus infection.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">We moved into our new office March 5. Since then I've been ironing out the wrinkles on a new phone system and attempting to reduce my hours back to a normal 40-hr. work week. I'm starting to read more of the newspaper again. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I wish I could say it is with relish that I return to the news, but it is not. Something noxious has occurred in the short amount of time since Biden has assumed the throne. The prestige press which not too long ago was critical of policies because they had a Trump imprimatur has now lined up in support since the Biden administration has adopted them as their own.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Look no further than the Saudi war on Yemen. It was with great fanfare that Biden <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/world/middleeast/yemen-saudi-biden.html">announced</a> in early February the end of U.S. support for Saudi "offensive operations." It turns out that this was more public relations than a plan to bring peace to the Arabian Peninsula. As the great Tariq Ali makes clear in "<a href="https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/killer-prince">Killer Prince</a>":</span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Though Biden has signalled the US will end ‘offensive operations’, it will continue to provide Saudi Arabia with ‘defensive weapons’, which appear to serve much the same purpose. His Administration has said nothing about halting technical, logistical and intelligence operations. By all indications, its plan is still to extract an unconditional surrender from the Houthis while maintaining its disastrous ‘counterterrorism’ operations in the country. To date, Biden’s promised ‘recalibration’ of the US–Saudi relationship is nowhere to be seen.</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Remember, Congress invoked the War Powers Act to force Trump to withdraw U.S. support for the war. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/trump-veto-yemen.html">Trump vetoed that resolution</a>. Why doesn't the Democrat-controlled Congress invoke the War Powers Act again? What's at stake? Tariq Ali summarizes:</span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Cholera and hunger on a scale that has not been seen since the last century, with some 20 million experiencing food insecurity and 10 million at risk of famine. An estimated 110,000 have been killed in the fighting, with a death toll of 233,000 overall, mostly due to indirect causes such as lack of food and health services. Few of the country’s medical facilities are functional.</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Remember this the next time a U.S. official pleads for a "humanitarian" military intervention to liberate an oppressed people. </span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-31574420481118011092021-02-07T04:49:00.004-08:002021-03-16T04:44:07.662-07:00Super Bowl LV Pick<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Today dawns Super Bowl LV (CBS, 3:30 PM EST). It's a COVID Super Bowl. Last year at this time the United States was a still a month away from lockdown frenzy. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Today's Super Bowl is an advertiser's dream. The sweet bird of youth phenom Patrick Mahomes against the 43-year-old GOAT Tom Brady. The dynasty-in-the-making Kansas City Chiefs versus the Jiffy Pop loaded with talent powerhouse Tampa Bay Buccaneers.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Chiefs have injuries on the offensive line; that combined with Tampa's intimidating defensive line and linebackers, a front seven that dominated the game against Green Bay, give the Buccaneers a clearly lighted path to the Lombardi Trophy. Toss in a clock-chewing Tampa offense with Brady at the controls throwing short passes to Chris Godwin over the middle and Mike Evans outside the numbers, and then handing the ball off to Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, and really, really, I don't see how the Buccaneers can lose.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Well, I guess, here's how. Kansas City's defense is better than people think. Led by coordinator <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/super-bowl/2021/02/05/steve-spagnuolo-tom-brady-kansas-city-chiefs-defensive-coordinator-buccaneers/4364340001/">Steve Spagnuolo</a>, the Chiefs will pressure Tom Brady with Chris Jones, Frank Clark and a combination of corner and slot blitzes. Brady will turn the ball over. Then it's Mahomes turn. Can the Chiefs move the ball against that frightening Tampa defense? I think they can. I think Andy Reid will attack those big fast linebackers -- Devin White, Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David -- and when Tampa's depleted secondary drops down to help, Mahomes will takes his shots down the field.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the end, I'm going with Andy Reid over Bruce Arians; Steve Spagnuolo over Todd Bowles; Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady. Take the <b>Kansas City Chiefs</b>.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-37082394927720897332021-01-22T07:11:00.006-08:002021-01-25T04:31:53.847-08:00NFL Championship Round Picks<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It comes with a feeling of great relief that the football season is almost over. There are only two Sundays left: the championship round two days away and the holiest American day, Super Bowl Sunday, February 7.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Each year at this time I feel the same way -- nauseated -- because for two straight weekends in January I do nothing but watch football on television. It's not healthy. And each year I draw the same conclusion: In the United States identity, public personhood, social intelligence -- call it, label it whatever way you want -- is indistinguishable from commercial consumerism.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The first game on Sunday, the NFC Championship game, <b>Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers</b> (3:05 PM EST, FOX), is an "instant classic" matchup between GOAT Tom Brady and MVP Aaron Rodgers. Tampa is a strong team with a loaded offense and young, dominating defense who shellacked Green Bay earlier in the season. I see this game coming down to whether the Buccaneers defense, led by coordinator Todd Bowles, will fluster Rodgers with blitzes and create turnovers. I'm betting that Rodgers, a fellow Berkeley man, who seems to be thinking more quickly and clearly now than at any time since the Packers won the Super Bowl ten years ago, will counter those blitzes with quick-release passes. Plus the game is being played at Lambeau Field. <b>Take the Packers</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The AFC Championship game, <b>Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs</b> (6:40 PM EST, CBS), is a tough one because of the multiple injuries suffered by star Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the unexpected nail-biter last week against the Browns. Mahomes was knocked out of the game with a neck injury and it took a fourth-down completion by backup Chad Henne to seal the victory. (What an amazingly ballsy call by head coach Andy Reid!) </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Mahomes is expected to start, but his mobility will be severely limited, both because of the neck and the toe. Buffalo is peaking right now. A lot of people are climbing on the Bills bandwagon. Kansas City beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this year by running the ball. The Bills were able to squash the Ravens run game last week. So one would think they could suffocate the Chiefs' Darrel Williams and Le'Veon Bell. But I am going to say that Andy Reid has schemed up something potent. <b>Take the Chiefs.</b></span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-65265790934053958432021-01-20T05:51:00.001-08:002021-01-20T05:51:14.174-08:00Trumpism Here to Stay<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-19/biden-to-become-oldest-president-ever-at-inauguration-graphic">oldest president ever at inauguration</a> ascends to the throne today in the nation's capital guarded by 25,000 troops, a few of whom have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/us/politics/national-guard-capitol-biden-inauguration.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">relieved of duty</a> because of the possibility of insider attacks reminiscent of the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Of the big questions tossed up after the January 6 mob riot on Capitol Hill the foremost is definitely where the Republican Party goes from here. Thomas Edsall's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/20/opinion/joe-biden-inauguration.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage">column</a> this morning samples academic opinion and concludes mildly, no doubt so as not to piss in Biden's inaugural punch bowl, that nativism, bigotry and xenophobia (now called Trumpism) are here to stay in the Grand Old Party. The only smiley face Edsall manages is a fairy tale about <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Z">Generation Z</a> voters riding to the rescue in ten years, similar to the fairy tale of rising Hispanic voter hegemony with which mainstream Democrats have comforted themselves for the last 15 years. Now that black and brown people are disaffiliating from the Democratic Party, a new collective hallucination is required.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Of course Trumpism is here to stay because Trumpism has been in the works at least since <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_v._Board_of_Education">Brown v. Board of Education</a>. In other words, Trumpism is synonymous with the modern Republican Party. You can't have a Republican Party without Trumpism. There will be some sort of kabuki to satisfy Wall Street and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. But in the end the party that will fracture first is not the GOP but the Democrats.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-80065180987433989042021-01-17T06:08:00.001-08:002021-01-17T06:11:36.116-08:00Sunday NFL Divisional Round Picks<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Some takeaways from yesterday's games are 1) after losing three-out-four playoff games in the last three seasons, it's time to declare the Ravens offense led by phenom Lamar Jackson a dud in big single elimination contests; and 2) Green Bay is going to be tough to beat at home.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">This afternoon we will have the opportunity to see how formidable the Cinderella Cleveland Browns are when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (3:05 PM EST, CBS). The Chiefs over the course of the season have played at a higher level than any other football club. No defense has been able to shut down Pat Mahomes. I don't think the Browns will be the first. <b>Take the Chiefs</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Today's <b>Buccaneers vs. Saints</b> matchup (6:40 PM EST, FOX) is being advertised as a battle of aged, future-hall-of-fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Despite beating Tampa twice this season and the game being played in the Superdome, New Orleans is only favored by a field goal, a testament to the hold that Tom Brady has over the mind of the tout.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I like the Saints at home. New Orleans has a strong defense and a multifaceted offense. Whenever I've seen the Bucs play this year it seems to me that Brady has struggled to establish a rhythm. In a contest of faculties between head coaches Sean Payton and Bruce Arians, I'll take the wily and vicious Sean Payton. <b>Take the Saints</b>.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-48088048676333930802021-01-16T08:09:00.003-08:002021-01-16T09:59:04.792-08:00Saturday NFL Divisional Round Picks<p><span style="font-size: medium;">With the U.S. Capitol on lockdown in anticipation of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/us/politics/inauguration-security.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">more unrest</a> what better way to spend the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend than watching football on television? </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">As I see it, two of the four divisional-round games this weekend are straightforward -- Los Angeles vs. Green Bay and Cleveland vs. Kansas City -- and two are tricky -- Baltimore vs. Buffalo and Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The first game of the weekend is <b>Rams vs. Packers</b> (4:35 PM EST, FOX) in Wisconsin at Lambeau Field where it currently is 33 degrees with snow showers. The weather should tell us everything we need to know about this matchup. The Rams are <a href="https://www.therams.com/news/injury-report-rams-packers-john-wolford-out-jared-goff-to-start-at-quarterback">banged up</a>, and that includes quarterback Jared Goff, receiver Cooper Kupp and all-pro defensive lineman Aaron Donald. While rookie running back Cam Akers isn't listed on the injury report, he hobbled off the field last week in the 4th quarter against the Seahawks.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Any hope the Rams have of winning in Green Bay is entirely dependent upon Akers putting together the kind of <a href="https://www.therams.com/news/cam-akers-eager-to-build-on-historic-playoff-debut">game</a> he had when he ran for 131 yards against the Seahawks. This would keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines and Goff from having to throw the ball in the snow with his injured hand. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Though Green Bay's defense ranks behind Seattle's <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game">against the run</a>, leading one to believe that the Rams can repeat their formula for victory -- a ground-and-pound offense married to a smothering defense -- my mind's eye looks back to <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=tennessee+vs.+green+bay&oq=yennesse+vs.+green+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i13i457j0i13j0i22i30l2j0i22i30i395l3.6180j1j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=m;/g/11j67_04cy;6;/m/059yj;dt;fp;1;;">Tennessee vs. Green Bay</a> game at the end of December when the Packers limited rushing king Derrick Henry to just under 100 yards. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">This game boils down to Aaron Rodgers against the Los Angeles pass rush in the snow. My feeling is that Rodgers is so mobile and accurate he is going to pick apart the Rams. The line is Green Bay by 6.5. <b>Take the Packers</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The primetime <b>Ravens vs. Bills</b> matchup (8:15 PM EST, NBC) is trickier. Some are confident that Buffalo will win; others, Baltimore. Most agree that the Bills have trouble stopping the run. In the <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=colts+vs.+bills&oq=colts+vs.+bills&aqs=chrome..69i57j0j0i22i30l2j0i22i30i395l4.9074j1j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=m;/g/11j67_xt9m;6;/m/059yj;dt;fp;1;;">game</a> against the Colts last week, the Bills gave up a combined 150-plus yards to Indianapolis running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Good running backs? Yes, absolutely. But with the Ravens we're talking about possibly the greatest rushing team of all time.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The big unknown here is how Lamar Jackson performs in primetime. He has a history of bed-shitting in the playoff spotlight. He played brilliantly against the Titans in the wild-card round. I love the guy, the way he plays the game, his unparalleled athleticism at the quarterback position (Michael Vick doesn't come close), his demeanor. But my concern is that Baltimore falls behind early and Jackson freezes.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">But really I think this game boils down to how the Ravens defense handles Josh Allen. Allen was able to put the Bills on his shoulders at key moments against Indianapolis and carry Buffalo to victory. <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game">By the numbers</a> Baltimore has a good pass defense, though, as it seemed to me, Ryan Tannehill carved up the Ravens with play action. The difference here is that the Bills don't have a Derrick Henry in the backfield to make the safeties bite on play action.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The line is Buffalo by 2.5 points. <b>Take the Ravens.</b></span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-19839342600131712962021-01-09T06:15:00.007-08:002021-01-16T08:09:48.701-08:00Sunday NFL Wild-Card Round Picks<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Worship of violence does seem crucial to fascism. Violence purifies and redeems; it clarifies and enthrones. The National Football League celebrates violence, but there is more to it than that.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Take Sunday's first game, <b>Ravens vs. Titans</b> (1:05 PM EST, ABC), a contest between the league's two top rushing teams. Is the Tennessee Titans offense violent? Yes. With Derrick Henry throwing tacklers to the turf helmet first it is the epitome of violence. The Titans are the number two rushing team in the league. The number one team is Baltimore. The Ravens are what I consider a finesse team. Are they physical? Yes. But physicality and violence are not synonymous. Quarterback Lamar Jackson directs a potent read-option attack which has led the league in rushing two years in a row, and led the league by a significant margin. Jackson is the first quarterback to rush for <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/ravens-jackson010321">multiple 1,000-yard seasons</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">For the Ravens to have a hope of advancing in the playoffs Jackson needs to be able to complete passes. The Ravens were favorites in each of the last two post-seasons only to be humiliated at home, first by the Chargers, who brilliantly loaded the box with defensive backs, completely suffocating the shifty Ravens QB, and then by the Titans. But the good news for Baltimore is that Jackson has been completing passes. When I watched a Ravens game earlier this season they had zero pass attack. That has changed.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Tennessee Titans, the games I have watched this season, have not impressed me, besides their win over Buffalo. <b>Pick the Ravens</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The team most analysts are dismissing is Chicago. In the <b>Bears vs. Saints</b> matchup (4:40 PM EST, CBS/Prime) New Orleans is favored by 10, the largest point spread of the wild-card round. There is likely to be one upset in the wild-card round. I just haven't seen enough Chicago football this season to know if the team is capable of shocking Drew Brees. I watched enough of New Orleans to know the Saints are beatable on any given Sunday. All in all though their offense is too potent even with a diminished Brees under center. <b>Take the Saints</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The final game of the weekend, Sunday Night Football's <b>Browns vs. Steelers</b> (8:15 PM EST, NBC), is predicted to be competitive. I don't see it. If Pittsburgh backup QB Mason Rudolph played Cleveland to a near draw on the road what is Ben Roethlisberger going to do to the Browns at Heinz Field? Even if Roethlisberger is not what he used to be, the Steelers at home are still a much better team than Cleveland. <b>Pick the Steelers</b>.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-3587307612391887422021-01-08T06:02:00.003-08:002021-01-16T08:10:10.866-08:00Saturday NFL Wild-Card Round Picks<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Against a background of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/08/world/covid-19-coronavirus">highest daily COVID death numbers</a> to date and a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/us/politics/trump-republicans.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">political crisis</a> in the Washington D.C. the National Football League will stage its first-ever "<a href="https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-super-wild-card-weekend-game-picks-bills-over-colts-rams-edge-seahawks">Super Wall Card Weekend</a>."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">As in years past I am going to use The Times' Benjamin Hoffman's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/sports/football/nfl-picks-wild-card-playoffs.html">predictions</a> as a baseline. Hoffman's picks include the point spread. I think it is hard enough to pick games straight up. So I ignore the point spread. I am going to pick Saturday's games this morning and then Sunday's games tomorrow because I am running short on time and need to leave soon for the office.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Colts vs. Bills</b>. (1:05 PM EST, CBS)The first of the Saturday games features the Indianapolis Colts traveling to Orchard Park to take on the sizzling Buffalo Bills. The line is Bills minus 6.5. I thought it would be more. I guess touts have faith in the Colts ground game and the vaunted Indianapolis defense. All I know is what I witnessed in the second half of the Colts recent game in Pittsburgh. A complete and total bed-shitting. I also know that Buffalo QB Josh Allen is super-impressive, possibly the most impressive quarterback in the NFL. Imagine a 6'5" Russell Wilson, in other words a mobile, strong-armed quarterback <i>who can actually see down the field</i>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Buffalo's running game has tailed off from last year but that's because the offense is much more dangerous with Allen running the empty set. That's how you beat the Bills. You have to smother their empty-set offensive. Can the Colts do it? It's possible. Will they do it? It's unlikely. <b>Take the Bills</b>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Rams vs. Seahawks</b>. (4:40 EST, FOX) As someone who watches every snap of every Seahawks game I could go on and on about this matchup. Seattle is favored by four points. The teams split the two regular season games they played. The Seahawks have key injuries on defense and the Rams have quarterback problems due to Jared Goff's injured thumb. Seattle's offense has been spotty for months. Nonetheless in that timespan Russell Wilson had one of his best games when the Rams were up here a couple weeks back. <b>Take the Seahawks</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Buccaneers vs. Footballers</b> (8:15 PM EST, NBC) I suppose an upset is possible here with an 11-5 Tampa team led by GOAT Tom Brady suffocated by Washington's fast, agile, young defensive line. I am a Ron Rivera man, having gone to the same university and shared a bench with him one sunny morning in 1982 while he sang <a href="https://10bennettave.blogspot.com/2014/10/hippies-vs-punks-clashs-combat-rock-pt.html">a Clash song</a>. Tampa is too strong. <b>Take the Buccaneers</b>.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-22394617030425198152021-01-07T05:43:00.006-08:002021-01-07T05:46:36.327-08:00The Ongoing Erosion of the Major Political Parties<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Yesterday's brief MAGA <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/06/us/trump-mob-capitol-building.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">occupation of the U.S. Capitol</a> while unprecedented paled in comparison to, say, the storming, occupation and ransacking of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storming_of_the_Legislative_Council_Complex">Hong Kong Legislative Council</a> in 2019. No fires were lit or artwork destroyed but <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supporters-us-capitol-4-dead/">four people died</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Nonetheless political elites are appalled, frightened and enraged by Wednesday's events. The sacrosanct center of the Washington Consensus was shown to be on par with Caracas or Kiev. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So far the main elitist demand appears to be <a href="https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2021/01/07/msm-already-using-capitol-hill-riot-to-call-for-more-internet-censorship/">more Internet censorship</a>. Trump's Twitter and Facebook accounts, his main cybernetic link to his followers, were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/technology/violence-election-capitol-hill-social-media.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">locked</a> yesterday.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">My takeaway from all of this -- Trump's quixotic crusade to overturn the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election">results</a> of an election he lost by seven million votes; the GOP debacle in Georgia's runoff election; and now the MAGA riot in the U.S. Capitol -- is that Trump or a Trump-like demagogic political figure will never be allowed to capture one of the two major political parties again. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Efforts to erect a version of China's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Firewall#:~:text=Its%20role%20in%20internet%20censorship,down%20cross%2Dborder%20internet%20traffic.&text=The%20term%20Great%20Firewall%20of,by%20Geremie%20Barm%C3%A9%20in%201997.">Great Firewall</a>, construction of which has been underway for years in the U.S., will be redoubled. The Republican Party will be encouraged to rejigger its nomination process to prevent a repeat of Trump.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The big question is whether this is possible. Can one branch of the duopoly excise its base of support and still win elections?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I say yes if the other branch of the duopoly is going to do the exact same thing at the same time. That's what were looking at post-#ForcetheVote, post-#FraudSquad. As <a href="https://www.blackagendareport.com/squad-wont-fight-pelosi-and-corporate-power">Glen Ford</a> writes this morning,</span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">In [AOC's] self-pitying funk, the Bronx fashion-plate and champion tweeter -- a rival of Trump, in that regard – sounded no different than the standard “because…Trump” Democrat, blaming the outgoing Orange Menace for her own political cowardice: “[I]n a time when the Republican Party is attempting an electoral coup and trying to overturn the results of our election, this is not just about being united as a party. It's about being united as people who have basic respect for the rule of law.” Having nothing to offer their “base,” Democrats make Trump the excuse for their refusal to buck the corporate masters. What will they do when the Orange Ogre is finally gone?</span></blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Doubtless, they will blame the Russians and a “handful of outspoken left-wing activists,” as <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-rejects-left-wing-calls-to-force-pelosi-to-hold-a-medicare-for-all-vote-in-exchange-for-her-vote-for-the-speaker/ar-BB1bXozm">MSN </a> dubbed the #ForceTheVote advocates, for undermining the smooth workings of “American democracy.” However, the exodus of the leftmost ranks of the Democratic Party has finally begun, and will accelerate in the excruciatingly unending Covid-19 crisis, and as the post-Covid corporate economic order emerges with the full collaboration of the Democratic Party. The biggest benefactor of the New Year’s revolt is the Movement for a People’s Party, coordinated by Nick Branna, which vows to run a slate of congressional candidates in 2022 and mount a presidential bid in 2024. For the first time in this century, significant numbers of young people of all races – most of them unabashed Democrats only yesterday, it seems – are expressing raw hatred for the Democrats, who are richly deserving of the utmost contempt.</span></blockquote>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-32140486659398514952021-01-06T05:54:00.006-08:002021-01-06T14:28:29.015-08:00Realignment<p><span style="font-size: medium;">If Jon Ossoff holds on and retains his slender lead in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/results-georgia-runoffs.html">Peach State</a> over the odious David Perdue, Democrats, Raphael Warnock already having been declared the victor over the poisonous plutocrat Kelly Loeffler, will have accomplished something significant, control of the U.S. Senate, and with it, control of Congress.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With septuagenarian Joe Biden White House bound, unless, of course, Trump pulls off a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/us/politics/dc-protests.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">coup</a>, Democrats will control the national government for the first time in a decade.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Before asking what such a government portends I think it's important to declare, post-Georgia runoff, that we are in the middle of a historic political realignment.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The genius of Trump is his ability to win the votes of the old, weird America, the rural bedrock of the nation mostly ignored by Madison Avenue and inside the beltway. But the problem here is that consistent appeals to this voting bloc cuts against the grain of the historically GOP suburbs, which are college educated, nominally socially progressive and peopled by viewers of CNN. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/georgia-election-results#democrats-win-one-georgia-race-and-the-other-hangs-in-the-balance">According</a> to a GOP insider:</span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">“Suburbs, my friends, the suburbs,” <a href="https://twitter.com/HolmesJosh/status/1346681721140473856">said Josh Holmes</a>, a Republican strategist and former chief of staff to Mr. McConnell. “I feel like a one trick pony but here we are again. We went from talking about jobs and the economy to Qanon election conspiracies in 4 short years and — as it turns out — they were listening!”</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Meanwhile Democrats, with their adherence to the neo-McCarthyism of Russiagate, which requires a tight embrace of the Intelligence Community, have swung to the right. This swing to the right has exposed the irrelevance of the Bernie wing of the party. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are sticking with Trump, leading me to believe that Trumpism has legs.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Going forward what we need to watch for is whether Trump can maintain hold of the GOP; for the Democrats, whether the whole progressive charade of the Squad and Justice Democrats can maintain the allegiance of the left wing of the party.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-64455874998853944062021-01-04T05:31:00.004-08:002021-01-04T05:33:16.706-08:00Assange Extradition Blocked<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/world/europe/assange-extradition-denied.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage">good news</a> this morning. The judge presiding over Julian Assange's show trial ruled that, due to his poor mental health, the WikiLeaks founder cannot be extradited to the United States:</span></p><p></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">The judge, Vanessa Baraitser of the Westminster Magistrates’ Court, <a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/judgments/usa-v-julian-assange/">said in Monday’s ruling</a> that she was satisfied that the American authorities had brought forth the case “in good faith,” and that Mr. Assange’s actions went beyond simply encouraging a journalist. But she said there was evidence of a risk to Mr. Assange’s health if he were to face trial in the United States, noting that she found “Mr. Assange’s risk of committing suicide, if an extradition order were to be made, to be substantial.”</span></blockquote><p></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">She ruled that the extradition should be refused because “it would be unjust and oppressive by reason of Mr. Assange’s mental condition and the high risk of suicide,” pointing to conditions he would most likely be held under in the United States.</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">If you read about the trial on <a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/">Craig Murray</a>'s blog or via <a href="https://consortiumnews.com/">Consortium News</a> -- major news outlets bizarrely opted not to cover "the trial of the century" -- you know the United States Government's case was a tapestry of the absurd. If anything, the <a href="https://www.nambuccaguardian.com.au/story/6649320/wikileaks-password-leaked-by-journalists/">trial proved</a> that the USG should have been targeting Guardian reporters David Leigh and Luke Harding because they were the ones who published the password to unlock the trove of unredacted classified diplomatic files supplied to WikiLeaks by Chelsea Manning. Furthermore, WikiLeaks wasn't even the <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252489382/WikiLeaks-published-unredacted-cables-after-password-was-disclosed-in-book">first outlet to publish the unredacted cables</a>; that was Cryptome. Why weren't its founders on trial in the Old Bailey?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's hard to feel confident about the future of the free flow of information. Independent journalists might be thriving online but a firewall has been erected between them and the mainstream. Reading the newspaper is not what it used to be.</span></p><p></p><p></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-21470128860621949532021-01-03T08:15:00.006-08:002021-01-03T09:18:01.496-08:00#ForcetheVote<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F3WJgEzCgws" width="320" youtube-src-id="F3WJgEzCgws"></iframe></div><br /><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://jimmydorecomedy.com/">Jimmy Dore</a> went from being a YouTube-based comedian to a vital public intellectual at the end of 2020 with his <a href="https://forcethevote.org/">#ForcetheVote</a> campaign to get the <a href="https://progressives.house.gov/">Progressive Caucus</a> of the U.S. House of Representatives to use its numbers to leverage a vote on <a href="https://medicare4all.org/">Medicare For All!</a> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The idea is simple. Because of the poor showing of House Democrats in November, their majority has narrowed to a razor-thin number of votes. A handful of true Progressives should withhold support for another Nancy Pelosi speakership unless she brings Medicare For All! to a vote.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A completely sensible idea, nonetheless one publicly rejected by Progressive superstar <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/progressives-aoc-dems-pelosis-medicare-for-all">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> (AOC) because she thinks that Medicare For All! would lose such a floor vote. But that's exactly the point -- to spotlight how completely out of touch the people's house is with the people. A <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/11/06/centrist-house-democrats-attack-medicare-all-fox-news-poll-shows-72-voters-want">super-majority supports Medicare For All!</a> A floor vote will shine a bright light and provide the opportunity to challenge no-voting representatives in the next election.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">If House Progressives can't force a vote on publicly-funded healthcare in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic, the U.S. body count for which will approach half a million by spring, then they are not politicians who merit support. Subsequently, I have cancelled my regular contributions to AOC and Rashida Tlaib on ActBlue.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Anyhow, a little bit of good news at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. Even if Pelosi is reelected as speaker today without Progressives flexing their muscles Jimmy Dore has done us all an enormous favor. He has exposed impostors on the left edge of the Democratic Party. Both branches of the duopoly need to be confronted, challenged, and, if necessary, destroyed to bring about a closer alignment between politicians and public sentiment. People want publicly-funded healthcare. People want an end to overseas military adventures. Yet one would never know by looking at Congress and the White House.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-65006339139953318552020-12-31T05:52:00.009-08:002021-01-01T11:23:25.361-08:00Super Bowl LV Prediction<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Going into this National Football League season I assumed that television ratings would be excellent due to the pandemic disruption of all sports leagues and subsequent fan demand for regular programming. That's why I was surprised a few weeks back to hear that television ratings were down <a href="https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-viewership-tv-tracker-week-15/#:~:text=Season%2Dto%2Ddate%2C%20the,point%20of%20the%202019%20season.">significantly this year</a>, meaning that the NFL's <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/289979/nfl-number-of-tv-viewers-usa/">hold on U.S. consciousness</a> appears to be waning again.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I've tracked this issue over the years because the National Football League, with the rise of the Internet giants and the diminishment of both broadcast television and Hollywood, is really the last cultural commons in the United States, and if the last cultural commons is trending towards spoliation we need to accept this as evidence that big change is underway.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">There are plenty of reasons why the NFL is tanking, but I am interested in what it augurs. I think it's pretty clear the direction we're headed because we've already arrived: political stasis and constant civil conflict. The two major political parties are imploding, and to my mind this is something long overdue.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In any event, I've appreciated games played to empty stadiums this year. The absence of cheerleaders and obscene fans is a relief. The excellence of the athletes is on even greater display.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Week 17 approaches, the last week of the regular season. Green Bay travels to Chicago to lock down homefield throughout the playoffs. I have to say that of late I have been greatly impressed by the Packers. How they humbled the Titans in the snow of Lambeau was an incontrovertible display of strength.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So heading into the playoffs I have to pick the Packers to go to the Super Bowl. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the AFC can anyone beat the Chiefs? </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Yes, if Mahomes has a bad day. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Las Vegas still favors Kansas City to repeat. I think that's right, though I wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Ravens or the Steelers pull off an upset.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Super Bowl in February, Super Bowl LV, will be a repeat of the first Super Bowl, but this time the Chiefs will win.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-35932920105814873922020-11-15T07:54:00.008-08:002020-11-15T07:59:54.877-08:00A Pandemic of Homelessness<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's that time of year. The big dark has descended upon the Pacific Northwest. Sunrise is after 7:00 AM. Sunset is 4:30 PM. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Each year around mid-November, due to the dark mornings and dropping temperatures, I'll start replacing my weekend road runs with laps on the community center soccer pitch. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Due to a lengthy recovery from COVID, I've been leery about recommitting to running. Last December I posted my best 5K time in years. It seemed as if I were on my way back. I followed that performance with close to a personal worst a couple months later at a leap year 5K; a performance that augured my falling ill with the coronavirus.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Slowly but surely my strength is returning. Demands at work are off the charts. So all restored vitality is being sucked up by the job. Nonetheless, with the chores of grocery shopping and laundry already expedited, and with Thanksgiving approaching, my holiday ritual for which is a long early morning run, I decided to head out to the playfield at 5 AM this morning.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I walked the steep hill up to the community center rather than run it, as I usually do. When I got to the artificial turf soccer field it was pitch black. No moonlight nor any streetlamp glow. I noticed big tarped piles dotting the perimeter. I figured it was machinery for turf maintenance. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">When I started running my square laps I could see that tarped piles were actually homeless bivouacs. Underneath the blue tarps were igloo-style camping tents. They lined the four sides of the pitch.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I've been coming to this community center soccer field for two decades, and I've never seen anything like this before. Clearly it is something that the city's parks department must have signed off on. I know from being on that field early in the morning that city workers service it regularly.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Homelessness was a huge problem prior to the pandemic, a glaring indictment of "as good as it gets" American neoliberalism and Trumpian "the greatest economy of all time" hokum. Now that problem is being mainlined. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/nyregion/homeless-lucerne-hotel-relocation.html?searchResultPosition=1">Cities</a> are transferring homeless from barracks-style shelters to hotels in order to reduce the number of coronavirus infections. <a href="https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/11/02/49733460/seattle-wants-to-buy-a-hotel-to-shelter-the-homeless-but-funding-remains-murky#:~:text=To%20that%20end%2C%20Councilmember%20Andrew,buy%20a%20100%2Droom%20hotel.">Seattle</a> is considering buying a hotel for the homeless. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hopefully some sort of socialized housing safety net comes out of this pandemic, a basic right to something like a home in a <a href="https://lihi.org/tiny-houses/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAwMP9BRCzARIsAPWTJ_GX9E5TitRbX768ah5shx9Y76erEV4bOy8-3nZgAjFP1tE6qY0yBk0aAmrLEALw_wcB">tiny house village</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">After I finished jogging I walked to a nearby Safeway for some Emergen-C. On the south side of an east-west street opposite the Safeway is a little pocket city park, a patch of green grass and shade trees. It too was filled with tents of the homeless. On the sidewalk leading to the Safeway entrance homeless slept.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The longer the pandemic persists the more homelessness is going to be forced from the margins of our neoliberal society to its center.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-50032653983719289582020-11-06T05:14:00.002-08:002020-11-06T05:23:26.977-08:00It's Morning in America: BlueAnon vs. QAnon<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's Friday morning and Trump's hope for claiming a second term appear to be dashed by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/05/us/election-results#georgia-matters-in-the-presidential-math-but-its-symbolically-important-too">Biden pulling ahead in the Peach State</a>. Surveying opinion, Scotsman <a href="https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/11/american-presidents/">Craig Murray</a> seems most sensible to me:<br /></span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">I hope that those who consider themselves of the left enjoy their relief when the electoral process finally puts to bed the extraordinary populism of Trumpism, and returns the USA to the smoother control of the regular media and political classes and their billionaire controllers. Because anybody who believes any more than that is happening is a fool. I said that I did not blog about the US elections because of the appalling partisan nature of debate. The truth is the system threw up, again, two truly obnoxious candidates entirely antithetical to the real interests of ordinary people in the USA. Biden will do nothing to tackle the appalling wealth and resource inequality which is the most startling problem the country faces. He will hopefully resolve social tensions in the short term. But the cause of those social tensions is a system of gross exploitation of the middle and working classes which is not sustainable in the long term, and which was the root of the Trump political eruption.</span></blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Kamala Harris was of course the most right wing possible Vice-Presidential pick. Her advance into power, despite being entirely rejected in the Democratic primaries, is in itself a huge condemnation of the system. I believe I am right in saying that Harris’s Primary campaign was so disastrous she managed to obtain zero delegates at all to the Democratic National Convention. Zero, None. Absolute bottom of the pile. Rejected by Democratic voters as the candidate in toto. Attempting to confirm this zero delegate fact, I just looked up <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris_2020_presidential_campaign">the Wikipedia page</a> on her primary campaign, which turns out to be the most entirely false, hagiographic and manicured Wikipedia page I have ever seen, on any subject, which is saying a lot. Apparently her Presidential Primary bid was in fact a tour de force of brilliant debating and political strategy, recounted in enormous detail, not an abject failure resulting in no delegates. The extraordinarily dishonest Wikipedia page is not perhaps in itself hugely important, but it is emblematic of the sinister manipulation behind the scenes of Kamala Harris’s rise to power.</span></blockquote><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Let us put a note in our collective diaries to look again in two years and see whether the USA has entered a period of renewed social progress, or just reinvigorated its position as a violent threat to the world. I am looking forward to the period when Biden’s mainstream cheerleaders have to find something positive to say rather than just respond “But Trump is evil”. I predict most of the responses below will say nothing much more on analysis than “But Trump is evil.” Knock yourselves out.</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I think World Socialist Web Site's <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/11/06/elec-n06.html">Patrick Martin</a> makes an important point when he says:</span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">While Trump at present lacks the political support to overturn the results of the election, he is laying the basis for a campaign to present himself as the victim of a “stab in the back.” This narrative will be used by himself and members of his family to perpetuate the development of a fascistic movement, which will become a permanent and significant presence in American politics.</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Trumpism isn't going to evaporate after Pennsylvania and Nevada are declared for Biden. The Republican Party is headed for a bloody bestial internal struggle. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Will the Lincoln Project neocons return to the GOP to knife fight with faux working class hero Josh Hawley or will they continue to hole up in the Democratic Party with the likes of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/spanberger-criticizes-democrats-strategy-in-caucus-call/2020/11/05/6ec2b368-258a-4061-9738-d83ee8971c3c_video.html">Abigail Spanberger</a>? Either way both national parties have houses built on melting ice.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Last night ABC News' George Stephanopoulos had to remind his viewers that Russia seeks to divide us. It was the BlueAnon mantra recited right before a commercial break, a bang of the gong for the Democratic faithful, as Trump flag-wavers rallied in Phoenix and Las Vegas, a patriot here and there with an AR-15 slung over the shoulder.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's morning in America: <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/11/06/assa-n06.html">Russiagate</a> vs. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pizzagate_conspiracy_theory">Pizzagate</a>.</span></p><p></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-12518270857370198362020-11-04T05:23:00.003-08:002020-11-04T08:35:41.694-08:00Wrong Again: No Blue Wave<p><span style="font-size: medium;">UPDATE: It looks like Biden is going to hold on in a squeaker, 270-264. Give Biden Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. That's 270. Give Trump Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. That's 264.<br /><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">****</span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">At this point, the early morning after election day, the presidential race is too close to call. Biden needs the vote yet to be counted in Michigan and Pennsylvania to come in overwhelmingly Democratic, something that is distinctly possible since many of the outstanding ballots are from urban counties.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">One thing though appears obvious: There was no blue wave. Texas didn't flip and Trump won Florida again. Republicans will likely maintain control in the Senate and even pick up seats in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc">House</a>. The energized electorate was composed of more than just alarmed soccer moms; it included Trump loyalists as well.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The bottom line here is that the United States is a nation on its way down. How else to explain the inability of a well-funded opposition party to shellac an incumbent saddled with 13 million unemployed and over 200,000 dead from a pandemic?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's difficult to rationalize. If Trump wins, the state polls in Pennsylvania will turn out to be even more inaccurate than they were four years ago -- a big blow to the mainstream media and the polling profession.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I'm not convinced that Biden has lost this. Trump's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/election-trump-biden-recap.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">premature declaration of victory</a> and call for a stop to the vote count is telling. As Republicans go to court it is unclear what arguments could justify halting the normal tabulation of election results.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">On the other hand, maybe "the United States is a Bizarro world of inverted McCarthyism where the fellow traveler is a closet QAnon revolutionary."</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-57872137414146013812020-10-30T08:05:00.003-07:002020-10-31T04:45:25.919-07:00Which Side are You On?<p>Glenn Greenwald's <a href="https://greenwald.substack.com/p/my-resignation-from-the-intercept">resignation</a> from The Intercept is one of those rare "which side are you on" moments of brilliant illumination. Yves Smith has a helpful <a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/10/glenn-greenwald-resigns-from-the-intercept-over-censorship-of-article-on-hunter-and-joe-biden.html">synopsis</a> this morning with links to all the key pieces.</p><p>The story in a nutshell is that editors at The Intercept refused to publish co-founder Greenwald's story about evidence of influence peddling found on Hunter Biden's laptop. In response, Greenwald announced his resignation and set up shop on <a href="https://greenwald.substack.com/">Substack</a>.</p><p>I subscribed to Greenwald's substack, as well as Matt Taibbi's. Taibbi's <a href="https://taibbi.substack.com/p/glenn-greenwald-on-his-resignation">take</a> on Greenwald's resignation is definitive. I hope you read it. </p><p>Taibbi plots the rise of Russophobia starting in 2016 as the key organizing principle of the Democratic Party. Russia went from being dismissed by Obama as barely a regional power to an omniscient many-headed hydra controlling U.S. democracy.</p><p>To me it has always seemed obvious that the the target of this new McCarthyism is the voting population of the United States. How to maintain fealty to a neoliberal order that produces more than anything else foreign wars and inequality? Gin up terror over foreign subversion by an official enemy.</p><p>As for The Intercept, its support for the war on Syria (Robert Mackey, Mehdi Hasan) and Russiagate (James Risen) shows it's squarely aligned with the U.S. national security state. On the other hand, I think Ryan Grim's reporting on progressive electoral politics is indispensable, and Ryan Devereaux has done great work on the Thin Blue Line.</p><p>In the end, does anyone doubt that Hunter Biden, a fucked up young guy, was peddling his father's name for personal advantage? I don't. At the same time, since I have never believed that Joe Biden is some kind of moral exemplar, I had no trouble voting the Democratic ticket. The battles yet to be fought are against the Democratic Party once it attains control of the federal government.</p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-49035590310141371042020-10-24T07:04:00.005-07:002020-10-24T07:28:32.704-07:00The 2020 General Election: It's Another Blue Wave<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As I emerge from the chrysalis of my COVID illness I am confronted with increased demands at work. I am now working a ten-hour day Monday to Thursday and a five-hour day on Friday. Where I used to wake up and spend 90 minutes on this page I am now heading to the office first thing so I can be at my desk by 7 AM. I work through lunch -- pre-lockdown I would walk ten minutes to a coffee shop and read the paper for 40 minutes -- then I scurry home at 4 PM where I work remotely until 5 PM.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's going to be this way for the foreseeable future. Social distancing at work means I am the principal person in the office most days -- a one-man band answering the phones, processing the daily mail, receiving deliveries, etc. Also, the building where the office is located has been sold, and we have a vacate date sometime at the end of winter. Herculean chores must be performed the next few months.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">With the general election a little more than a week away I wanted to get my prediction down, for what it is worth.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I was wrong, as were most others, about 2016. I thought the gender gap was real and that Trump would lose the suburbs as a result. It didn't end up that way, but it is coming to pass in 2020. Trump is losing the suburbs. For instance, Maricopa County, home to the Phoenix metropolitan area, is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/us/elections/politics-arizona-poll.html">polling strongly for Biden</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/us/politics/biden-trump-times-poll.html">recent national poll</a> shows Biden up by 9 points. Biden is up in the industrial swing states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; plus, Biden is also up in Arizona and Florida. For all intents and purposes Trump has no path to victory without Pennsylvania and Florida.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The diehard Republican has a couple responses when confronted by the slew of polls and other markers of Democratic strength like <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363">record-breaking Dem early voting</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/15/actblues-stunning-third-quarter-15-billion-in-donations-429549">ActBlue fundraising totals</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The first GOP argument, which cannot be discounted, is a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-donald-trump-arizona-florida-bb1fbe29559b2b6a6e7c01933cfa444e">significant voter registration advantage</a> in big swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania. Republicans apparently earned this advantage by door-knocking during the pandemic. Good for them. You can't fault the party for working hard. Whether increased registration translates into a significant increase in votes is another <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-surge-in-republican-voter-registration-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/">question</a>. It is of course better than nothing, but just because someone comes to your door and registers you to vote doesn't mean that you will actually fill out a ballot, let alone vote for Trump.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The second Republican argument is that all the polls in 2020 are even more off than they were in 2016 because of a "social desirability bias." <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-the-polls-hide-trumps-lead/">The American Conservative</a> summarizes this argument as follows:</span></p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Two pollsters who got 2016 right think that the mainstream polls are wrong again, and although they grant that the election is very close, at this point they predict a Trump electoral college victory. Patrick Basham of the Democracy Institute predicted a Trump win in ’16 and also got the Brexit referendum right as well. Basham, in his latest poll for 2020 <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling">predicts</a> an easy electoral college victory for Trump with all battleground states ending up in Trump’s column. Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group in his 2016 polls predicted the exact number of electors awarded to Trump. Now Cahaly <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pollster-pitfalls/id873667927?i=1000494775785">predicts</a> that most battleground states will go for Trump with an electoral college victory in the mid-270s.</span></blockquote><div class="code-block code-block-2" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; font-family: neue-haas-grotesk-display, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.75px; margin: 8px auto 8px 0px; padding: 0px;"><div id="div-gpt-ad-1572516514557-5" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"></div></div><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">What both these pollsters are aiming to tackle is what is called social desirability bias in the polls. Social desirability bias is when a poll interviewee gives an answer to a question based on what he considers socially acceptable, rather than his true opinion on the subject. It has been observed that voters were more likely to choose Trump in a poll that felt more anonymous, such as a poll that used an automated, interactive voice response system instead of a live caller.</span></blockquote><p><span style="font-size: medium;">For me, this doesn't pass the smell test. It would mean that the United States is a Bizarro world of inverted McCarthyism where the fellow traveler is a closet QAnon revolutionary. It just doesn't add up. Trump has completely fucked up the federal response to the pandemic, and he fomented a race war over the summer, not to mention his overt messaging to the militia movement. Do you think a Grosse Pointe Park soccer mom is cheering for the Wolverine Watchmen?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">So Trump loses. He holds the Confederate States of America minus North Carolina and Virginia. Trump's performance in Georgia and Florida will tell us whether the election will be a rout. If Trump holds on in Florida and Georgia he'll limit the size of Biden's margin in the electoral college.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">In Florida Trump is doing much worse this go-round with senior citizens due to his handling of COVID. I think Biden wins there. In Georgia Biden has a real shot. Remember, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stacey_Abrams">Stacey Abrams</a> lost in the 2018 gubernatorial race by just 50,000 votes despite a massive voter purge by the GOP.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">All in all it's another Blue Wave.</span></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-25596972856226271932020-09-17T05:58:00.004-07:002020-09-17T06:09:44.846-07:00COVID Long-Haulers + My Pitch for Astragalus<p>The New York Times published a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/health/coronavirus-mental-health-long-hauler.html">story</a> earlier in the month about COVID "long-haulers," people, such as myself, who continue to struggle months after being infected. The NYT story emphasizes the psychological struggles of long-haulers. </p><p>The story re-posted today by Naked Capitalism, "<a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/09/thousands-of-new-york-long-haulers-struggle-with-covid-19-months-after-diagnosis.html">Thousands of New York ‘Long Haulers’ Struggle with COVID-19 Months After Diagnosis</a>," is much more sympathetic to the plight of the long-haulers, situating them in a larger health crisis that has to date been under-reported rather than shading the story as an example of pandemic mass psychosis.</p><p>I can bear witness to the brutal reality of the long haul. For the most part I've stopped walking home from work, choosing the bus instead, because the two-mile uphill climb is too much for me now. My heart isn't right.</p><p>After a ridiculously unproductive couple of visits to my primary care physician (and ridiculously expensive, even though I have good employer-based health insurance) I decided to forego further rabbit-holing in the corporate health industrial complex and take charge of my own recovery.</p><p>One positive that I can report is the Chinese herb Astragalus. I read online that it <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4804945/">helped with myocarditis</a>. <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/research-reveals-heart-complications-covid-19-patients">German studies published this summer</a> revealed a connection between COVID-19 and cardiac problems. Astragalus has made a difference. Three capsules taken daily -- one morning, noon and night -- have reduced my nasty and incapacitating arrhythmia. </p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-71316425431727424882020-09-08T12:45:00.005-07:002020-09-08T15:27:00.813-07:00Daily COVID Deaths Predicted to Climb Next Month<p> From this morning's <a href="https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/09/08/44431826/slog-am-lots-o-labor-day-protests-gender-reveal-party-sparks-big-fire-the-seattle-air-sucks">Slog</a>:</p><p><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;"></strong></p><blockquote><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;">The key question:</strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;"> Just how much did we fuck things up this weekend? Experts worried Labor Day weekend could cause a new surge in the virus. "The warnings came as </span><span style="background-color: #fcff01; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;">a widely cited model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington projected a worsening outbreak in the U.S. that will peak in early December at about 2,900 deaths per day, up from about 860 a day now, unless government officials take action</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;">," according to the </span><a href="http://seattletimes.com/business/will-long-labor-day-weekend-mean-another-coronavirus-spike/" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #16698e; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration-line: none;">AP.</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;"> As county health officer Dr. Jeff Duchin told </span><a href="http://thestranger.com/slog/2020/08/31/44373264/how-to-party-in-the-age-of-covid" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #16698e; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", times, serif; font-size: 17.6px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration-line: none;">Slog</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;">: If we all made the same decisions on Labor Day weekend as on Memorial Day weekend and the Fourth of July weekend, we will have trouble sending children back into school this fall. “You have to think, are these social activities and going out to eat more important right now than educating our children?”</span></blockquote><p>Also, from today's <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/09/08/viru-s08.html">WSWS</a>:</p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">Daily deaths are projected to start climbing after October 1 and then rise sharply after November 1. By December 1, current projections for the daily number of deaths stand at 26,870. Hospital resources expected in use in December include 1.87 million hospital beds, 399,463 intensive care unit (ICU) beds and 340,307 ventilators. These projections are driven by dropping temperatures in the fall and winter season that drive people indoors, compounded by declining mask usage, which stands at around 60 percent, and declining social distancing measures.</span></blockquote><p>COVID is already back on the rise in Europe. Spain and France have experienced a resurgence this summer. In the midst of this resurgence children are being sent back to school. The result is going to be an infection spike prior to the anticipated seasonal spike in October. Not a pretty picture.</p><p>Western governments have basically given up on the idea of developing a comprehensive diagnostic system of the sort you see practiced, for instance, by NFL teams: regular testing, quarantine and contact tracing. It's not even mentioned anymore, replaced by bullshit happy talk about a vaccine. </p><p>Western governments have adopted a de facto policy of herd immunity, something that could prove to be illusory given that reinfections have now been <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y">documented</a>.</p><p>New York City should give us a good idea. After the city's truly horrific spring, infections were reduced to such an extent that there has been speculation that it has achieved <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html">herd immunity</a>. If this is true, there should be no spike when schools reopen on September 21.</p><p>As COVID deaths begin to tick back up markets are on their way down. The Fed's "QE forever" was able to buy all-time market highs for a spell, but the reality of long-term unemployment has finally appeared to have crashed the party.</p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 17.6px;"></span><p></p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2276638054486960095.post-5349651741692916202020-09-01T15:27:00.005-07:002020-09-01T15:40:16.730-07:00Minnesota on My Mind<p>In his afternoon <a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/09/200pm-water-cooler-9-1-2020.html">Water Cooler</a> Lambert Strether devotes three paragraphs, the first of which can be found below, to liberal Minnesota's perplexing status as a tossup battleground state:</p><blockquote><span style="font-size: medium;">UPDATE Trump (R)(2): “An unlikely state tightens up” [<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/01/2020-minnesota-trump-406280">Politico</a>]. “Minnesota, which once looked like a vanity project for Donald Trump, is suddenly emerging as a critical test of his effort to turn his campaign around. Interviews with more than a dozen officials and strategists from both parties in recent days depict a state in which Joe Biden is leading, but where the president is making inroads in rural Minnesota. … In the run-up to the <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">2016 election</span>, Minnesota seemed like a stretch for Trump. No Republican had carried the state since Richard Nixon in 1972, and Trump made minimal effort there. Even so, <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">Trump came close to victory, carrying 78 of Minnesota’s 87 counties and losing the state by fewer than 45,000 votes</span>. Following the election, Trump said he regretted not doing more. The state’s 10 electoral votes — the same number as neighboring Wisconsin — became an enduring source of infatuation for him. He’s still preoccupied with his near-miss four years later. ‘One more speech, I would have won,’ Trump told a crowd recently in Mankato, a small college town in southern Minnesota. ‘It was so close.'” • A Trump crowd in a college town? Can any Minnesotans comment on this?</span></blockquote><p>It's hard to believe that the cradle of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is going to swing to Trump in 2020, a year of social upheaval not unlike <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_United_States_presidential_election">1968</a>, the year the Democratic Party standard bearer was vice president Hubert Humphrey, stalwart champion of civil rights and a former mayor of Minneapolis.</p><p>Humphrey carried his home state that year of course, but he also carried Michigan, a state which was a key to Trump's victory in 2016.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/esaagar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Sagaar Enjeti</a> thinks Trump wins reelection if he carries Michigan, Arizona and Florida. The problem for Trump is winning all these battleground states in 2020 is going to be a lot different than how he won in 2016. In 2016 he won as a stealth candidate who very few analysts took seriously. That's not the case this year.</p><p>I prefer to look at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_presidential_election">1988</a>. If Michael Dukakis won Minnesota so will Joe Biden. On the other hand, Dukakis also won in Wisconsin and Iowa, states Trump won in 2016 and will likely win again.</p><p>Dukakis was the last losing Democratic Party presidential candidate for whom I voted. Shamefully, I voted for Clinton twice; voted Green until Obama; then voted Green again in 2016. After much internal wrestling I have decided to vote for Biden.</p><p>It's not a naive vote, nor a hesitant one. I am confident in the decision, and I can justify it based on several different arguments.</p><p>Let's take one that impacts me personally. Labor rights. The Mitch McConnell GOP castrated Obama after Scalia died in early 2016 and Obama's pick to replace him on the Supreme Court never came to a vote. Subsequently, Trump nominated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Gorsuch">Neil Gorsuch</a>, who was approved and assumed office in April of 2017. Next year, in June, Gorsuch, voted with the majority in <i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janus_v._AFSCME">Janus v. AFSCME</a></i>.</p><p><i>Janus vs. AFSCME</i> allows public-sector workers, say, state department of transportation employees, to opt out of union membership. The initial fear among unions was that the Supreme Court decision would lead to a loss of upwards of 30% of their membership. Nothing like that ended up happening. As I believe I mentioned before, the overwhelming majority of union members realize that having a union and a collective bargaining agreement is a significant advantage.</p><p>Nonetheless, the low single-digit percentage of workers who do opt out creates an overabundance of administrative chores. And I am the person on staff for whom it falls to expedite those chores. It's a lot of correspondence and database work. I figure that each worker who opts out consumes about 20-30 minutes of my time. Since June of 2018 many hours of my worklife have been chewed up thanks to <i>Janus</i>.</p><p>Even if Trump loses in November, the GOP will hold a 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court for the foreseeable future. Nationwide right-to-work is rumored to be in the offing. I think a second term for Trump basically guarantees some form of private sector right-to-work. Trump is a bomb thrower. Though many in his base are rank'n'file trade unionists, I don't have to tell you that he would revel in diminishing their ability to make a living.</p><p>So there's one reason to vote for Biden. Labor rights. I'll include some more as we slouch toward election day.</p><p>Also, in the pipeline I have the second installment of The Republican Party Must Be Destroyed. It's a look at that hatemonger from yesteryear, the father of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christ_of_the_Ozarks">Christ of the Ozarks</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_L._K._Smith">Gerald L.K. Smith</a>.</p>Unknownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12803238253689954199noreply@blogger.com0