Pennsylvania's 18th CD Special Election: Another Democratic Loss is Coming

There is a special election tomorrow in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district. It is another one of these special election referenda on Trump. The district, concentrated in the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh, will soon disappear because of the court-ordered remapping of Pennsylvania's over-the-top GOP gerrymander, but that hasn't stopped outside money from pouring in.

The outcome of the race in the 18th is considered predictive of future partisan fundraising, the 2018 midterms and possibly even the Democratic presidential nominee.

The race pits a young, handsome former Marine blue dog Democrat, Conor Lamb, against Republican state representative Rick Saccone. The prior occupant of the 18th, Tim Murphy, a staunch pro-life Republican, resigned his seat in disgrace when it became public that he had forced his mistress to have an abortion.

Good reporting has been produced on this race. Last week's "Why G.O.P. Is Spending Millions on a Soon-to-Vanish Seat in Trump Country" by Jonathan Martin illustrated the contortions of the young Lamb -- anti-Pelosi, pro-gun, anti-$15 minimum wage -- and how the Republicans have exploited these contortions.

Trip Gabriel in "My Union or My President? Dueling Loyalties Mark Pennsylvania Race" describes talking to rank'n'file union members, upon whom Lamb's campaign purportedly rests, outside of a steel pant in the district and the impression one gets is distinctly partisan Republican:

The divide between union leaders and the rank and file is real, in western Pennsylvania and elsewhere. Outside the gates of an Allegheny Technologies steel plant in Washington, Pa., deep in the 18th District, workers coming and going during the changeover to the afternoon shift almost all said they had voted for Mr. Trump.

Most said they still approved of the president’s job performance, and for some, that support extended to Mr. Saccone as well. A number took at face value the flood of TV attack ads that outside Republican groups had been airing, trying to tie Mr. Lamb to Representative Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, whose social positions make her unpopular here.

“If he’s a Nancy Pelosi supporter, I’m not going to vote for him,” Brad Phillips, 45, said.

Mr. Lamb has said repeatedly that he would defy Ms. Pelosi. But a Republican attack ad insists that he, like Ms. Pelosi, favors cuts to Medicare — a hoary accusation based on the Affordable Care Act’s reduction of payments to health providers. (Republicans in Congress retain those same reductions in their bills to repeal the health law.)

Mr. Phillips seemed to cite that attack ad as evidence of Mr. Lamb’s duplicity. “Some of the things she’s supported, he’s backed her,” he said.

Ironically the wellspring of support for Lamb is in the white-collar suburbs of the district:

Within the party, there is a boisterous faction that argues that the Democrats’ future lies with college-educated suburbanites and minorities, and that trying to win back white working-class voters may be a lost cause.

One reason Mr. Lamb seems poised to exceed expectations for a Democrat in his district is the anti-Trump fervor of progressive voters concentrated in the white-collar suburbs close to Pittsburgh.

These voters have swamped the polls in nearly every election of the past year, from Virginia to rural Wisconsin, and Democrats have been outperforming their November 2016 results in race after race.

Chuck Moser, a sales director for Cisco who held a fund-raiser for Mr. Lamb at a private club in Sewickley, an affluent suburb, waited in a long line last week to hear former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaign for Mr. Lamb.

“I haven’t previously stood out in chilly weather waiting to go to rallies,” he said.

He and his wife, Barb, 40, described themselves as more liberal than Mr. Lamb.

Mr. Moser said voters like them would make an important difference on Tuesday.

Herein lies the problem for Democrats: There aren't enough of these white-collar suburbs to beat Trump. Trump flies in and packs a hangar; Biden walks a rope line. That's a big difference. Lamb's base voter is more progressive than his candidate. Lamb is just a vehicle for spite, disdain for Trump.

The blue dog is hocus pocus, The blue dog might have worked for Pelosi in 2006. People were tired of Bush by then. But 2018 is different. Trump's supporters haven't tired of him. Lamb can't be expected to carry a district Trump won by 20 points in 2016 when nothing much has changed since then. Saccone is going to win this race.

One silver lining though -- Lamb loses and Joe Biden's presidential aspirations will be dimmed.