Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Dragon Rising

Despite the saturation coverage of the Charlie Hebdo massacre the Gray Lady managed yesterday to sneak in a story on the frontpage (right beneath a large color photo of a machine-gun toting French soldier beneath an iconic arch of the Eiffel Tower) about the amazing array of gargantuan civil engineering projects currently underway in China.

"In China, Projects to Make Great Wall Feel Small," by David Barboza, a reporter who specializes in a constant stream of criticism of Chinese society and the state (he is similar to William Neuman, whose portfolio is South America -- both might as well be employees of USG), the build-for-growth philosophy of the People's Republic of China is faulted for 1) being government driven, 2) fueled by debt, 3) adding capacity that is underutilized in a slowing economy and 4) damaging to the natural environment. But then at the end of the piece (a strong "tell" that one is consuming prestige-press propaganda) the undeniable benefits of an economy oriented around infrastructure construction are enumerated: efficiencies of scale, increased competitiveness, new scientific skills and engineering expertise acquired which can then be exported to other countries.

Reading Baroza's story and its description of enormous wind farms, offshore airports, an underwater tunnel twice the length of the one beneath the English Channel, a 26.4-mile sea-spanning bridge, canals, pipelines, high-speed rail, a freight rail line that runs from China to Spain in 20 days, new ports and commercial architecture provides proof of a nation ascending. Here is the positive part of Barboza's article, the paragraphs at the end:
Proponents say the giant projects can bring greater efficiencies. Big dams and wind farms can cut carbon emissions, while mass transit can help reduce oil consumption, thus delivering greener solutions.
Other huge projects could bolster China’s position as a manufacturing and trading powerhouse. In November, the government said its freight rail link between eastern China and Spain had opened, allowing factory goods to reach Spain in just over 20 days. It is now the world’s longest rail journey, far surpassing the route of the famed Trans-Siberian Railway.
China also sees hidden benefits in such projects, including the ability to gain new scientific and technical expertise.
As a result, bridge-building in China has become something akin to an Olympic event. In 2007, after China completed the longest sea-crossing bridge, in Hangzhou, the nation has regularly broken records. China now claims the longest bridge of any kind, the highest bridge and, in 2011, a new successor to the longest sea-crossing bridge, 26.4 miles long, in the eastern city of Qingdao.
“For China, a lot of this is about building a national identity. Mega-projects are suited for that,” said Bent Flyvbjerg, an authority on mega-projects who teaches at Oxford University. “It’s a lighthouse for all to see what the Chinese nation can do.”
It is the type of engineering expertise the government wants its state-owned enterprises to export — and that is already happening. Boston is buying subway cars from China. Argentina, Pakistan and Russia have asked China to upgrade their infrastructure. Last month, Chinese construction teams began work on an ambitious $50 billion canal across Nicaragua that could some day rival the Panama Canal.
“They have the idea that they’re going to be doing infrastructure for the rest of the world,” said Mr. Huang at the Carnegie Institute.
In doing so, China is pushing the boundaries of infrastructure-building, with ever bolder proposals. The Dalian tunnel looks small compared with the latest idea to build an “international railway” that would link China to the United States by burrowing under the Bering Strait and creating a tunnel between Russia and Alaska.
“The technology is already there,” said Wang Mengshu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and an adviser on the Dalian tunnel proposal. “Think about it. If we can build a railway to the North Pole, it would be convenient for us to go to the North Pole.”
The United States, bearer of the global currency, could be doing the same thing, building infrastructure for future growth. But the nation's political class is dominated by the rich who are interested only in plunder not development.

No better example of China's rise and U.S. decline is Ed Wong's story this morning, "Exploring a New Role: Peacemaker in Afghanistan." The PRC is talking to the Afghan Taliban. Realizing Uighur unrest is steered by the usual suspects out of Pakistan, China is trying to talk and cut a deal rather going the military-first route the U.S. favors:
BEIJING — No stranger to engaging in power politics with its Asian neighbors, China’s diplomatic corps has in recent months been trying on a new role: talking with the Afghan Taliban in an effort to play peacemaker.
Late last year, two Afghan Taliban officials traveled with Pakistani officials to Beijing to discuss a potential peace process among Afghanistan’s warring parties, according to three current and former Afghan officials. And that may not have been the first such meeting. Though his account could not be independently confirmed, one Pakistani journalist said that China’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Sun Yuxi, had traveled to Peshawar, Pakistan, to meet with Afghan Taliban representatives weeks earlier.
Despite years of war and turmoil in Afghanistan, China had long seemed reluctant to become directly involved. So what has changed to move it to try to mediate with Islamist militants now? According to Chinese and foreign analysts, the answer lies in three factors: China’s growing worries about a Uighur uprising on its own frontier; concern about more instability on its western border after the main American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan; and urgency to secure access to Afghan mineral and oil deposits where Chinese companies have already made large investments.
“Under the new situation, China is more willing to take on greater responsibility and more willing to proactively promote conciliation,” said Zhao Huasheng, a professor and director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
He added that China was in a good position to help shepherd a peace process, now only in the proposal stage, “because China is not involved in Afghanistan’s domestic fights and, comparatively speaking, is pretty broadly accepted.”
***
There are signs that Uighur militants have been making use of training bases in the Pakistani tribal belt. In November, Afghan and Western officials said in interviews that the Afghan intelligence agency had shown China evidence that dozens of militant Uighurs caught inside Afghanistan in the past year had been trained in camps in Pakistan. 
Last March, Reuters did a telephone interview with Abdullah Mansour, who said he was the leader of the Turkistan Islamic Party, which seeks to free Xinjiang from Chinese rule. Abdullah Mansour said Uighurs were training in the mountainous tribal areas of Pakistan and planning “many attacks” on China.
Wong has another story this morning, "10 Turks Said to Be Under Arrest for Aiding Terrorist Suspects in China," that ties Turkey to terrorism in Xinjiang. It reminds one of the role Turkey played in the rise of the jihadis in Syria:
BEIJING — The police in Shanghai have arrested 10 Turkish citizens and two Chinese citizens and accused them of providing altered Turkish passports to terrorist suspects from the western region of Xinjiang, a state-run newspaper reported on Wednesday
The people trying to use the passports — nine ethnic Uighurs trying to leave China illegally through a Shanghai airport — are also under arrest, according to the newspaper, Global Times. 
All the suspects were detained in November and formally charged recently, the report said. It added that the nine Uighurs were planning to go to Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria after leaving China. Audio and video materials with content related to terrorism were found on those trying to leave, the report said. 
Those involved in providing the forged passports have been charged with smuggling terrorists and altering legal documents, Global Times reported. On Wednesday afternoon, calls made to the Shanghai police seeking comment were not immediately answered.
Hopefully Chinese talks with the Afghan Taliban will bear fruit. But I am skeptical. The U.S. and its principal allies among the Gulf monarchies are entirely committed to the spread of destabilizing jihadi violence. It keeps them control.

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