Mexican Standoff in Iraq's Parliament

It is important to follow the action in Iraq's parliament because it lies at the heart of the U.S.-peddled canard. From the capture of Mosul last month by Islamic State in a blitz that brought jihadis to the outskirts of Samarra, to the Kurds mobilizing the Peshmerga to control Kirkuk, USG, accompanied by a chorus in the media, explained the revolutionary turn of events by blaming the government of Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki. If only Maliki had been more inclusive of Sunni representatives, the story goes, Islamic State would not be flying the black flag over Iraq's second-largest city as well as claiming control of numerous border crossings. The United States has conditioned its support for a military response to Islamic State with a demand that Maliki has to go. 

Yesterday the Iraqi parliament, known officially as the Council of Representatives of Iraq, convened for the first time since the April 30 elections to give the U.S. exactly what it wants, a quickly formed  government without Nuri al-Maliki as the chief executive. And therein lies the rub. The Shiite parties are willing to oust Maliki. But this is not what the U.S. is really after; it has always just been a cover story to obscure the partition of Iraq. Hence the sudden turnabout by the Sunni bloc, effectively sabotaging the opening session of parliament and delaying the formation of a government for another week.

Rod Nordland has an excellent story today, "As Iraqi Violence Rages, Lawmakers Fail to Reach Deal on New Government," that lays everything out. But before we get to the pith of the Sunni sabotage, let's take a peek at the opening paragraphs where Nordland highlights Kurdish chutzpah:

BAGHDAD — Iraq’s major parties initially thought they had a deal ready when they sat down Tuesday to form a new government, but the effort collapsed in factional acrimony in less than half an hour. 

“We need our salaries,” shouted a Kurdish representative, Najiba Najib, complaining that the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad had not been paying Kurdish officials since the Kurdistan region all but broke away last month. When extremists with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, drove the Iraqi Army from northern Iraq, the Kurds took the opportunity to seize control of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The Kurds have long laid claim to the city, and insisted that they intend to keep it.

“You brought ISIS into our country and took the Iraqi flag down in Kirkuk and put your flag up!” shouted Mohammed Naji, a Shiite politician, at Ms. Najib. “Go and sell your oil to Israel.” 

The meeting’s rocky start did not come about for lack of incentive. American diplomats have suggested that any major new military assistance against extremists would come only if the Iraqis form an inclusive government acceptable to all sects. The powerful Shiite religious establishment had issued an edict telling legislators they had to conclude the entire deal by Tuesday. And around much of the country, Sunni militants pressed the government on numerous fronts.

As Nordland clearly explains, the process to form a government in Iraq is that first the Sunnis elect a speaker; the speaker then oversees the election of the president, a Kurd; the president asks the the largest parliamentary bloc, which is Shiite, to designate the prime minister, who assumes power with a two-thirds vote. Everything was supposed to go like clockwork. The Sunni alliance had its choice for a replacement prime minister lined up. And then suddenly after less than a hour the Sunni and Kurds walked out. Can you smell a rat?

Sunnis and Kurds were to have agreed on Salim al-Jabouri, a Sunni, to become the new speaker, replacing Osama al-Nujaifi. In exchange, they expected the Kurds to announce their choice for president, who has to be a Kurd, and the Shiites’ National Alliance bloc to announce a Shiite prime minister to replace the incumbent, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. Both Sunnis and Kurds, along with some Shiites, have insisted that Mr. Maliki has to go. 

Sunnis at the last minute faced a challenge from Mr. Nujaifi, who wants to hold onto his seat, said the Shiite politician Haider al-Abadi, a supporter of Mr. Maliki’s State of Law party. And Kurds were nowhere near agreeing on a candidate for president. Kurds and Sunnis, however, said the Shiites reneged by not coming to the meeting with a nominee for the post of prime minister.

Iraq’s complex system of choosing a government makes such deal-making difficult and essential. The speaker is necessary to preside over Parliament to elect a president, who then chooses the biggest bloc in Parliament, which picks the prime minister. But a two-thirds vote is required to choose the speaker, so politicians try to have the entire deal agreed on in advance. 

“We cannot jump to the last stages without taking the first step,” said Mr. Abadi, adding that it would be foolish for the Shiites to announce their candidate for prime minister now if the process ended up taking months. That, he said, might render Mr. Maliki a lame-duck leader in the middle of running a war, if someone else were chosen. 

So after Ms. Najib and Mr. Naji exchanged words, a recess was called by the temporary speaker, Mahdi Ahmed Hafith. Only 60 legislators returned from the recess, however, so there was no quorum to continue. Parliament was adjourned until July 8.

The United Nations pussyfooted around who was to blame for the failure of the opening session when it was obvious to all that Sunni prevarication was the root cause:

Within hours, the United Nations issued an unusually strong rebuke. “Politicians in Iraq need to realize that it is no longer business as usual,” said the top representative here, Nickolay Mladenov. “I call upon all political leaders to set aside their differences.” 

Mr. Mladenov called the June death toll “staggering.”

Keep watch for any statement issued by USG. To continue to blame Maliki's government at this point when it is clear that he is on his way out and that the Shiite alliance has a replacement ready would be compelling proof of a conspiracy to aid the advance of Islamic State and the de facto partition of Iraq.

What is going on behind the scenes is that the Sunnis and Kurds are bargaining. They want guarantees before they participate in any government. In the case of the Sunnis, they want the defense ministry; the Kurds want their seizure of Kirkuk blessed, as well as the right to market and sell oil. The Shiite bloc will not grant these guarantees. In order to shield the intransigent Sunnis and Kurds from blame and rebuke, the U.S., based on past practice, will step in with some sort of disinformation campaign. This looks to be the way things are going to go in the month of July.