Monday, April 14, 2014

What Pearls of Wisdom CIA Chief Brennan Imparted While in Kiev are Hard to Imagine

The pro-Russian uprising in eastern Ukraine appears at this point to be unbowed and gaining traction. This from a solid round-up of the events this past weekend by Andrew Kramer and Andrew Higgins, "No Action Seen From Ukraine as Deadline for Militants Passes":
Through Monday morning, as the sun burned off a dense mist rising from stubbly winter fields in the region, the Ukrainian news media reported no efforts to storm occupied buildings in the eastern part of the country. No police officers or military personnel were gathered outside the regional administration building in Donetsk, which flies a Russian flag as well as the flag of the recently declared but as yet unrecognized People’s Republic of Donetsk. 
In another indication of the scale of the loss of control by the central government, pro-Russian protesters set up a checkpoint on a main highway about 25 miles outside of Donetsk. 
The government’s push on Sunday to reassert its authority in a vital industrial and coal-mining region appeared to have made little headway. Pro-Russian protesters appeared to control not only the police station but also the entire town of Slovyansk, after having set up checkpoints at major streets leading into town.
The protesters blocked a major highway in the east, and Russian and Donetsk flags flew over administrative buildings in several other midsize towns, including Mariupol, where protesters seized a building Sunday.
My sense is that the putschists in Kiev don't have control of the armed forces. Why else throw out ultimatums that can't be met? They might have an "elite" unit or two like Alfa, which may or may not be composed largely of mercenaries, as well as Right Sector hooligans. But apparently these forces are not enough to storm and hold the myriad government buildings under occupation. Also, I would guess that Russia has elite special forces in plainclothes on the ground in these eastern cities. Once the Ukrainian attack begins we can expect that they will play a role.

The fact that CIA chief John Brennan was reported to be in Kiev instructing the putschists over the weekend is proof that things are very shaky for Yats & Co.:
Russian news media reported Sunday that the American C.I.A. director, John O. Brennan, had arrived in Kiev on a secret visit to advise Ukrainian officials in charge of domestic security and defense. The American Embassy in the Ukrainian capital declined to comment on the reports.
The problem for the putschists is while these buildings can be stormed and taken by mercenaries, how can they be held? The military and state security apparatus obviously cannot be relied upon; hence, the appearance of Greystone personnel. What pearls of wisdom Brennan had to impart are hard imagine.

No comments:

Post a Comment