The Fable of Western Sanctions

Obama is in the Netherlands today to attend a G-7 meeting (G-8 minus an ostracized Russia). His goal will be largely confined to public relations gimmickry, to convey unity of purpose among the G-7 industrial nations towards "Russian aggression" in the Crimea. There is no unity of purpose. All one has to do is look at the graphic "How Much Europe Depends on Russian Energy" that was included in a story by Steven Lee Myers and Neil MacFarquhar this past Saturday to know that any sanctions Europe imposes on Russia will be window dressing only. Here's why: Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, imports 30% of its energy from Russia; the Netherlands, 34%; Sweden, 46%; Italy, 28%; Finland, 76%; Poland, 91%; Czech Republic, 73%; Lithuania, 92% -- and so on down the line.

The lede story today in the Gray Lady admits as much:

The other members of the Group of 7 economic partnership hardly have interests identical with those of the United States, and in many ways they are divided even among themselves, complicating any effort to draw a firmer line with Moscow. 

Mr. Obama’s sanctions, announced last week, were aimed at sowing pain among members of a Russian economic and political elite who owe their wealth and loyalties to Mr. Putin. But the sanctions were also targeted to minimize disruption to the global economy and to avoid further jeopardizing already meek Russian cooperation on issues like the war in Syria, Iran’s nuclear program, the Middle East and North Korea. 

For European countries, the risk of wider conflict with Russia is even graver. Britain hosts Russian billionaires and their money; Germany gets about one-third of its energy from Russia and sells it machinery and cars; France is in the process of delivering sophisticated attack ships to the Kremlin; and Italy depends on Russia for some 28 percent of its energy.

The U.S. position boils down to lies and bluffs. First, the lies: Pretend the putsch that sent the elected Ukrainian president fleeing for his life is perfectly legal and that there is no precedent, like, say, the U.S. dismemberment of Yugoslavia, for Russian actions in the Crimea. Next, the bluff: Talk incessantly of serious economic consequences for Russia when clearly nothing of the sort is in the works.

It is both clumsy and obvious; it is simply embarrassing.

More proof of the crass nature of the Obama administration's information war is its fear-mongering the military exercises Russia is conducting on its Ukrainian border. Though fears of an incursion into eastern Ukraine have subsided with Russia agreeing to the presence of OSCE monitors, this salient fact is ignored; rather, war hysteria is played up.

The United States would be much better served by quieting things down. But apparently its leadership, beginning to realize that it is now responsible for a dysfunctional Ukrainian state, cannot accept the fact that its stewardship of the February putsch (Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs Vicky Nuland's famous and oft-quoted "Fuck the EU") has turned into a punch bowl caked with turds.