Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Syrian Peace Conference Likely Won't Take Place Until September, If Then

Today is the second day in a row that the New York Times national edition has no coverage of Syria. Events in Egypt, with a showdown now between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military looming large, have crowded out coverage of the civil war.

Reuters has a story which is built around a rebel video threatening two Shiite villages, Nubl and Zahra, near Aleppo. SANA reports a terror bombing in Damascus as the SAA grinds away in Homs.

Online Michael R. Gordon of the New York Times has a story about the status of the peace conference. Now September is being spoken of as a possible date. The story is a useful recapitulation of the bargaining positions of the United States and Russia. Reading it I am once again struck by the destructiveness of U.S. strategy, which is to foment chaos in hopes that it will bring al-Assad to the table. Imagine a situation where al-Assad immediately accedes to Western wishes and steps down. The sectarian warfare will not stop. The opposition is splintered. They most likely will continue fighting each other for spoils. There is already some of this going on among jihadi groups.

If civil war erupts in Egypt everything changes. The Wahhabis will be in a pickle. The Muslim Brotherhood is their baby. Will they allow a return of military control? Possibly. If they are allowed to achieve their aims of Talibanizing Syria.

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